Crypto Cycle Topped in 2025 or Still Bullish? ETF and Macro Viewpoints

• Bulls lean on ETF inflows, macro strength, and rising stablecoins for continuation
• Bears point to rotations, buyer fatigue, and MSTR crossing below 200-day
• Q4 2025 is ground zero for whether the cycle peaks or extends

The debate in Q4 2025 is whether the crypto bull cycle has already topped or still has room to run. Some argue that the four-year cycle timing points to exhaustion, while others point to steady ETF inflows, rising stablecoin liquidity, and supportive macro conditions as evidence the rally isn’t done.

This split has left traders and analysts divided, a wall of worry that now shapes how capital is being deployed. What’s clear is that conviction is high on both sides, with bulls betting on structural inflows and bears warning that the easy gains are behind us.

Why bulls argue the cycle is not topped

Historically, Q4 has been the strongest quarter for crypto, especially in the last leg of a four-year cycle. However, the old rule that Bitcoin’s price surges every four years after its halving might not hold as much weight anymore.

Many now argue that the market is being shaped more by institutional flows, new ETFs, and the overall global economic climate than by the simple supply schedule. Plus, the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and steady inflows gives crypto a structural demand base not present in prior cycles, not to mention that the total stablecoin supply is increasing.

Related: The Four-Year Cycle Once Explained Bitcoin, Now Power and Policy Rewrite the Script

As @alpha_pls argued, crypto now trades macro. The business cycle has not topped, rate-cut expectations can still drive flows, and Bitcoin continues to follow gold’s path with a lag.

Over the past 90 days, stablecoin supply has expanded by more than $45 billion, led by USDT (+$19.6B), USDC (+$12.3B), and USDe (+$9.0B), according to RWA.xyz.

Stablecoin net flows in the last 90 days. Source: RWA.xyz

This surge in fresh stablecoin liquidity signals fiat inflows are still entering the market rather than contracting, one of the clearest data points giving bulls confidence that the rally is not done.

Why bears argue the cycle may have topped

On the other hand, there are those who point out a bear case where the bull cycle is topped. The market has gone up very fast, and some believe the classic four-year boom-and-bust cycle is simply running out of steam.

A good number of people believe that the market has exhausted its pool of new buyers, with the most accessible gains having already been realized.

Then, important institutional buyers, such as corporate Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), may be approaching allocation limits. Additionally, new regulations could make them more cautious.

It has also been suggested that the past crypto peaks were fueled by a frenzy of everyday investors. At the moment, the average person seems more interested in the stock market than crypto.

What’s more, Strategy (MSTR), a company famous for buying Bitcoin, broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time this cycle, which was seen by many as a bad omen for the entire crypto market.

In the end, the split opinion in the market outlook is more than a theoretical debate, since it directly shapes how traders manage their money. Both sides have good points, but nobody actually knows anything for certain, and we have yet to see which side was correct.

Related: Wall Street ETFs Have Killed the 4-Year Cycle. Here’s How Pros Are Trading Altcoins Now