Jupiter price prediction as JUP clears 200-day EMA on revenue-driven rally

Jupiter has surged more than 15% after a sharp rebound in June protocol revenue revived bullish sentiment despite persistent risk-off conditions across the crypto market.

According to data from crypto.news, Jupiter ($JUP) traded around $0.233 at the time of writing after briefly touching an intraday high near $0.238, extending its weekly gain to almost 30%.

The token’s rally followed a sharp improvement in protocol activity during June. Data from DeFiLlama showed Jupiter generated 261,909 $SOL in user fees and 76,257 $SOL in protocol revenue during the month, reversing three consecutive months of weakening network activity.

Because a portion of protocol revenue feeds Jupiter’s staking and governance model, the jump in cash flow quickly translated into renewed demand for the token.

The move also arrived while risk appetite across digital assets remained subdued. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has continued to hover in Extreme Fear territory near 11 as macro uncertainty and tighter liquidity conditions keep investors selective toward altcoins. Jupiter nevertheless outperformed most large-cap tokens, suggesting traders have prioritized protocol-specific fundamentals over macro headwinds.

Derivatives traders joined the advance rather than fading it. Open interest climbed roughly 11% to $58.7 million, while funding rates stayed positive near 0.0021%, showing leveraged traders have continued paying a premium to maintain long exposure instead of aggressively hedging the rally. That combination generally supports sustained momentum as long as fresh buying continues to absorb profit-taking.

Bulls have reclaimed the long-term trend while momentum targets higher resistance

The daily chart shows $JUP has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average around $0.219, a level that repeatedly rejected advances during the previous decline. Price has also remained comfortably above the daily Supertrend indicator near $0.169, preserving the bullish structure established after June’s recovery.

Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The daily MACD remains above its signal line despite a modest slowdown in histogram expansion, suggesting upside momentum has eased but has not reversed. On the four-hour chart, RSI has climbed to about 63 without entering overbought territory, while the MACD has completed another bullish crossover as price pushes back toward the recent swing high.

The 4-hour structure also shows $JUP trading above an ascending trendline that has supported higher lows since early June. Fibonacci retracement levels place immediate resistance near $0.238, followed by the psychological $0.24 region. A decisive close above that zone could expose the May peak around $0.26, while the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $0.218 now serves as the first important support during any pullback.

CoinGlass liquidation data reinforces those technical levels. The largest concentration of short liquidations sits between roughly $0.238 and $0.245, creating a potential liquidity pocket if buyers force another breakout. Below the market, notable long liquidation clusters have formed around $0.22 and $0.21, areas that could attract buyers if price retraces before attempting another advance.

Failure to hold support could revive the previous bearish trend

The bullish outlook would weaken if $JUP loses the ascending trendline and falls back below the former breakout zone around $0.218. Such a move would place the 200-day EMA under pressure again and increase the probability of a decline toward the $0.20-$0.19 region, where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement aligns with previous consolidation.

Macro risks also remain in place despite Jupiter’s strong fundamentals. Persistent risk-off sentiment, reduced liquidity across crypto markets, or renewed weakness in Solana ecosystem tokens could limit follow-through buying. Without continued growth in protocol revenue and sustained derivatives participation, the latest breakout could lose momentum before challenging the next major resistance zone above $0.24.