Peeling back the onion on USDe’s growth

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We’ve all seen the USDe chart as of late. It’s up and to the right, now crossing $11.4 billion in circulating supply. There are a few key reasons behind this, which aren’t fully reconciled with sUSDe’s 6-9% APY.

Looking under the hood, the USDe market on Pendle for the September maturity now accounts for over $3.4 billion in USDe, 30% of USDe’s circulating supply.

Unlike sUSDe, USDe itself is not natively yield-bearing, and is intended to represent the value of $1. On this Pendle market, however, USDe liquidity receives a 70x sats boost from Ethena’s points campaign, and the YT buyers on this market are pricing the value of these sats at an implied APY of ~14%, a steep premium to the underlying APY of 0% and the benchmark yields provided by sUSDe or USDC supplied on Aave. As the price of ENA has risen from $0.25 at the start of July to $0.67 today, the expected value of ENA distributions from sats has risen along with this.

Herein lies the flywheel-points farming. Spend on growth with “points”, making USDe more attractive on Pendle. The USDe supply grows, accelerating top line metrics for Ethena. The growth in the top line leads the liquid markets to price ENA higher, raising the expected value of ENA distributions through points. As the market raises the implied valuation on points, the USDe supply continues to grow to crowd out this now 14%-16% implied yield, continuing the flywheel. Over $1 billion of USDe has been added to this market since last week.

Going one level further — as the market raises the implied valuation of the points, the fixed yield on the USDe-type PTs is lifted as well, making them more attractive for looping. As discussed last week, these instruments have shown profound utilization rates on Aave, which now holds over $4 billion in PTs, with borrow capacity and LTVs completely maxed out. As leverage across these instruments is continually dialed up, risks of an unwind continue to amplify.