Solana at critical decision point: will SOL breakout to $176 or tumble to $131?

Solana is testing a highly technical resistance zone. A breakout could trigger a move toward $176, while a rejection risks a return to the $131 support level. Volume confirmation remains the deciding factor.

Solana’s (SOL) price action is approaching a critical inflection point. After reclaiming the point of control within its current trading range, the asset is now challenging a dense resistance cluster. The outcome at this level, whether a breakout or a rejection, will likely determine the next major move. A breakout could initiate a bullish expansion toward the $176 region, while failure to overcome this confluence zone would suggest continued range-bound behavior between $154 and $131.

Key technical points

• Reclaimed Point of Control: Price action has returned above the volume-weighted average zone.
• Stacked Resistance at $154: Includes the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and anchored VWAP from highs.
• Volume Still Lacking: Breakout must be supported by volume or risks invalidation.

SOLUSDT (1D) Chart, Source: TradingView

Solana recently rebounded from a key swing low just below $130, triggering a strong upward move that peaked at $187. Since then, the price has been confined within a defined range, oscillating between the value area high near $154 and the value area low around $131. Reclaiming the point of control signaled renewed interest from buyers, but the current rally is encountering significant headwinds.

Price is now testing a technically dense resistance region marked by two major confluences: the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous swing high and the anchored VWAP drawn from the top of the range. This dual-layered resistance makes the area structurally significant, and difficult to break without strong momentum.

If Solana fails to reclaim this resistance zone on a closing candle basis, a move back toward the $131 support level is likely. This would keep price locked within the broader range and reinforce the rotational structure of the current market. However, if resistance is broken decisively, and most importantly, with supporting volume, the probability of a bullish expansion increases significantly. The next target would be the $176 region, aligning with a prior swing high and high time frame resistance.

A key variable to watch here is volume. The current push higher has occurred with declining participation, raising the risk of a false breakout. If demand fails to materialize near the highs, price is likely to rotate lower once again.

What to expect in the coming price action

Solana is at a technical crossroads. A breakout above $154, backed by volume, opens the path to $176. Failure to reclaim this zone increases the likelihood of a rotation back to the $131 support area.