SPCX Price Prediction: World’s Biggest IPO Closed 19% Up and History Says Buyers Lose 44%

SpaceX trades at $166.85 in after-hours on June 12 after closing its Nasdaq debut at $161, a 19% gain from the $135 IPO price on volume approaching 500 million shares, making it the largest IPO in history and turning Elon Musk into the world’s first trillionaire in a single session.

How SPCX Priced the IPO Before Equity Markets Opened

Crypto markets got there first. Synthetic SPCX perpetuals on Hyperliquid were trading near $175 ahead of the IPO, roughly 30% above the $135 offer price. IG International derivatives implied a SpaceX valuation above $2.4 trillion before a single share traded on Nasdaq. Moreover, Polymarket traders put 56% odds on a first-day close between $2 and $2.5 trillion market cap.

The actual debut landed at $161, below where synthetic markets had priced it. The intraday high hit $176.52 before sellers pushed it back, which means traders who chased the Hyperliquid position near $175 entered above where the stock ultimately closed.

• Resistance: $176.52 (debut high), $175 (pre-IPO synthetic peak)
• Support: $161 (closing price), $150 (opening price)

The Whale Bet and Where the Liquidation Sits

One wallet on Hyperliquid opened a $22.29M 2x isolated long on SPCX.P near $168, sitting on roughly $1.15M in unrealized profit as of Friday. Funding fees paid total just over $500. The liquidation level sits at $93.27, meaning the position survives a significant drawdown before forced closure.

The bet is not small and the entry near $168 lands above the $161 closing price on equity markets. If SPCX opens Monday below $168 and stays there, the position moves underwater fast.

What IPO History Says About Buying the First Close

SpaceX is going public at nearly 94 times trailing sales. Jay Ritter’s IPO database shows that among IPOs with price-to-sales ratios above 40, buyers at the first close saw an average three-year return of negative 44.8%. The 30% first-day premium that synthetic markets priced in evaporated partially by close.

Morningstar valued SpaceX at $780B, roughly 55% below the IPO price. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran put fair value between $1.25 and $1.3 trillion, calling $135 “rich.” Cerebras priced at $185, opened at $350, and later fell to $197. Rivian and Uber showed the same pattern. Lockup expirations have not started yet for SPCX.

The only profitable division today is Starlink. SpaceX has accumulated $41.3B in total losses since 2002.

What the IPO Means for Crypto

Capital rotation into SpaceX has been a headwind for crypto all week. Milk Road analysts noted Bitcoin and Ethereum received no speculation or accumulation interest as money moved toward the IPO. SpaceX does hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet but the position is small enough that it has no meaningful price impact.

The broader read is that crypto is competing for attention and capital against a $1.77 trillion narrative with Musk’s name on it. That does not resolve quickly after the IPO closes.

SPCX Price Prediction for June 14, 2026

• Upside: A hold above $161 into Monday and index inclusion speculation could push SPCX toward $180. The whale’s position adds buy-side pressure if the stock opens above $168.
• Downside: A gap down below $150 on Monday morning triggers the pattern seen in high P/S ratio IPOs historically. The whale liquidation at $93.27 is a distant but real ceiling on how much leverage the market can absorb if selling accelerates.