’Sunk-cost-maxxing’ is killing long-term crypto development

Most crypto projects will struggle to build anything long-term as they are forced to constantly chase new narratives to attract investors, according to Ten Protocol’s head of growth, Rosie Sargsian.

In a Saturday article posted on X titled “Why Crypto Can’t Build Anything Long-Term,” Sargsiai suggested many crypto founders have paper hands, switching gears at the first sight of trouble.

“Traditional business advice: don’t fall for sunk cost fallacy. If something isn’t working, pivot. Crypto took that and did sunk-cost-maxxing,” she wrote, adding:

“Now nobody stays with anything long enough to know if it works. First sign of resistance: pivot. Slow user growth: pivot. Fundraising getting hard: pivot.”

Source: Rosie Sargsian

Crypto’s 18-month product cycle

Sargsian argued that there is now an 18-month product cycle in crypto, in which a new narrative emerges, funding and capital start flowing in, and everybody pivots amid the hype.

It builds up over six to nine months, then ultimately interest dies down, and founders then look for the next pivot.

“This cycle used to be 3-4 years (during ICO era). Then 2 years. Now it’s 18 months if you’re lucky. Crypto venture funding dropped nearly 60% in just one quarter (Q2 2025), squeezing the time and money founders have to build before the next trend forces another pivot,” she said.

Sargsian didn’t necessarily blame the crypto project founders, as she acknowledged they are playing “the game correctly,” but the “game itself” almost makes it impossible for projects to see their ideas through to the long term.

“The problem is, you can’t build anything meaningful in 18 months. Real infrastructure takes at least 3-5 years. Real product-market fit requires iteration over years, not quarters,” she said, adding:

“But if you are still working on last year’s narrative, you’re dead money. Investors ghost you. Users leave. Some investors even force you to catch the current narrative. And your team starts interviewing at whatever project just raised on this quarter’s hot narrative.”

Hurdles to thinking long-term

One key issue has been how projects incentivize people to adopt the platforms and stick around long-term when the hype dies down.

Hype for sectors like NFTs, for example, generally follows boom-and-bust cycles.

Related: OpenSea rejects pivot from NFTs, says it’s evolving to ‘trade everything’

Tools like token launches and airdropped rewards for early adopters have been essential tools for drawing interest; however, without sufficient structuring and planning, they can result in early investors dumping right after the token drops and abandoning the platform.

Responding to Sargsiai’s post, Sean Lippel, general partner at venture capital firm FinTech Collective, echoed similar sentiments, but went to claim that some founders or investors don’t want solutions that promote broader long-term thinking.

Source: Sean Lippel

“A group of investors + operators + DC influencers looked at me like I was crazy at a recent industry dinner when I said I supported A16z’s 5+ year vesting on tokens as part of new market structure legislation,” he said, adding that it’s “insanity how many founders I’ve seen get rich that have built nothing of longevity in crypto.”

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