XRP Deleveraging Nears 2026 Lows: Can XRP Repeat Its 790% Rally From 2024?

$XRP is going through another deleveraging phase on Binance.

According to CryptoQuant author Darkfost, a key derivatives metric has dropped to one of its lowest levels since late 2024. A similar reset in 2024 preceded $XRP’s 790% rally.

Binance Leverage Ratio Drops Near Multi-Month Low

Darkfost said Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), which measures leveraged futures positions relative to exchange reserves, has fallen to 0.16. It is now close to its April 2026 low of 0.15, making it one of the weakest leverage readings since November 2024.

Meanwhile, $XRP has corrected by about 70% from its 2025 high of $3.65. This suggests traders have significantly reduced their leveraged exposure during the downturn.

The accompanying chart shows the ELR steadily moving toward the red support zone after peaking during $XRP’s previous rally. At the same time, $XRP’s price has retraced to around $1.10.

Lower Open Interest Points to a Healthier Market

According to Darkfost, the falling leverage ratio is primarily due to shrinking futures positions. Liquidations during the correction have also contributed to the decline. As leveraged positions are closed, open interest falls, reducing speculative activity.

The analyst said this deleveraging phase is a healthy sign. Excessive leverage often makes markets more fragile and increases the risk of sharp price swings.

Similar to the 2024 Setup

Darkfost compared the current setup to mid-2024, when $XRP traded near $0.40 and spent months consolidating while Binance’s ELR dropped to around 0.05.

Following that leverage reset, $XRP went on to rally more than 790% to over $3.60, with leverage gradually returning alongside rising prices. With $XRP trading at $1.10 today, a repeat of this historical move would put the token’s price at approximately $9.80, close to the psychologically important double-digit level.

However, Darkfost emphasized that the current conditions do not guarantee another major rally. Instead, he said monitoring deleveraging cycles can help traders better understand changes in market structure and position themselves as speculative excess is gradually flushed from the system.

$XRP Withdrawals Hit Five-Month High

Meanwhile, $XRP holders are moving more tokens off major exchanges, with withdrawals now outpacing deposits on Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit. CryptoQuant data shows that Coinbase recorded its strongest seven-day withdrawal trend since February this week. Withdrawals on Binance have also returned to February levels.

Despite the increase in exchange outflows, $XRP’s price has remained stable near $1.10, suggesting the withdrawal trend has not yet translated into immediate price gains.

Analyst Amr Taha added that the data measures the number of deposit and withdrawal transactions—not the amount or value of $XRP moved—making it a reflection of changing user behavior rather than capital flows.