$100,000 Still Possible for Bitcoin? Not Miracle, But Historical Fractals Say So

The Bitcoin price has extended its pullback. BTC is down roughly 3% over the past 24 hours and about 6.6% over seven days, slipping below $90,000 and pushing the $100,000 target further away.

Still, this drop is not breaking new ground. Similar pullbacks have appeared before, and in those cases, Bitcoin rebounded once key technical conditions aligned. This time, the setup again hinges on momentum exhaustion and a reclaim of critical moving averages.

Hidden Divergence and EMA Reclaim Define the Rebound Setup

The rebound thesis starts with momentum.

On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is showing a hidden bullish divergence. Between mid-December and late January, the BTC price formed a higher low while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made a lower low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When RSI weakens, but price holds structure, it often signals that selling pressure is slowing.

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Hidden Divergence BTC: TradingView

That momentum shift matters because it sets the stage for the next technical trigger: the exponential moving averages.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin recently lost both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. An EMA is a moving average that gives more weight to recent prices, making it useful for spotting early trend changes.

Since June 2025, Bitcoin has followed clear fractals. Each time price reclaimed and held the 20-day and 50-day EMAs after a pullback, it rallied sharply.

Late June saw a 16.9% move.

Late September produced 11.7%.

Early January delivered 10%.

BTC Price Fractals”>

BTC Price Fractals: TradingView

If the RSI stabilization leads to a rebound that reclaims the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, the same historical expansion range still applies. From current levels, that keeps a move toward $100,000 mathematically intact. But are on-chain metrics supporting the technicals?

Whales Hold Steady While Long-Term Holders Cap the Price

On-chain data explains why the rebound has not started yet.

Whale behavior remains constructive. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have not declined since January 14. Even as prices pulled back, whale counts stayed flat to slightly higher, suggesting large players are not driving the sell-off. Hence, conviction remains.

Whales Supporting Price: Glassnode

Hodlers are also absorbing supply. Wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days have continued adding coins. Despite the recent drop between January 14 and January 20, this group increased inflows by 62%.

Long-Term Holders Adding: Glassnode

The pressure comes from very long-term holders.

Wallets holding Bitcoin for more than one year have accelerated selling into weakness. On January 14, their net outflows were around 25,700 BTC. By January 20, that figure had expanded to roughly 68,650 BTC. That 167% increase in distribution is the main force preventing the price from lifting cleanly.

Very Long-Term Holders Still Selling: Glassnode

In short, whales and hodlers are supporting the price, while very long-term holders are supplying BTC.

The Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide Whether $100,000 Remains in Play

This conflict now gets solved through price action.

On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $94,390 and $96,420. A daily close above these levels would signal a successful EMA recovery and confirm the rebound structure. If that happens, a move toward $100,000 ($100,240 line) would represent an advance of roughly 12% from the current levels, well within the historical EMA-driven range discussed earlier.

On the downside, $87,830 is critical. A sustained break below this level would weaken the RSI divergence and expose deeper support near $84,350. That outcome would invalidate the rebound thesis and confirm that long-term holder selling remains dominant.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Bitcoin does not need a miracle. It needs momentum confirmation and an EMA reclaim. And it might also need support from the very long-term holders. The EMA reclaim gig might get delayed if they keep selling.

If those align, the same fractal that has worked repeatedly since mid-2025 may still point the way back toward $100,000.

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