Analyst: Bitcoin ETF Holders Are $5K Underwater Even as Institutional Demand Returns

Bitcoin ($BTC) touched $76,000 on March 17 to register its highest price level since early February, as institutional investors continued to put money into U.S. spot ETFs, extending a multi-day recovery streak coming after heavy outflows in February.

However, the rebound in demand is running into a key constraint, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr., with ETF investors still sitting on an average unrealized loss of $5,174, which he says could affect price action around the $80,000 mark.

ETF Flows Recover, But the $79,962 Realized Price Looms

In his latest market update, Adler said that spot Bitcoin ETF flows have gone through what he called a “full cycle” over the past month, going from capitulation in mid-February to a steady recovery in the last few weeks. According to him, from February 15 to 24, the seven-day average of ETF net flows stayed negative, hitting a low of about -1,883 $BTC per day on February 18.

However, around February 25, the trend changed, with flows turning positive and peaking at about +3,387 $BTC per day on March 2. Adler currently puts the seven-day average at around +1,472 $BTC per day, with liquidity conditions also getting better. During the same period, the total number of ETF holdings rose by about 26,600 $BTC, which is a little over 2%.

The analyst sees this change as a return of institutional demand after the earlier outflows. He does, however, point out that this demand is below a clearly defined level of resistance.

That level is the realized price for the ETF cohort, which Adler mapped at $79,962, an amount showing the average cost of buying an ETF for all investors. And with $BTC trading just above $74,000 after earlier hitting a six-week high, it means the group still has an overall paper loss of over $5,000.

Adler described the gap as one of the most important structural features of the current market. This is because, as Bitcoin gets closer to the realized price, more investors will get closer to breaking even, which can make it more likely for them to sell. For that reason, the market technician says that the $80,000 region is a place where upward movement may slow down unless demand is strong enough to take in the potential extra supply.

Market to Test Resistance Condition

At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed $BTC up over 5% in the last 7 days and the same across 30 days. However, the uptick was almost 9% over two weeks, although performance still lagged year-on-year, with the asset shedding nearly 11% from its value in that time, keeping it over 41% below its all-time high.

For now, Adler is watching the $80,000 level as the key battleground.

“A spot close above $79,962 combined with sustained ETF net inflow above +2,000 $BTC per day would signal a regime change,” he wrote in his analysis.