Bitcoin braces for tariff shock, but ETFs could cushion the blow

Ongoing tariff risks could hurt Bitcoin’s safe haven narrative in the short term, according to a Bitfinex expert.

Bitcoin’s (BTC)bullish case has long relied on its role as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk. However, the asset is now facing pressure from evolving U.S. trade policy, Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, said in comments to crypto.news.

That said, Kooner noted that Bitcoin holds advantages it lacked in previous cycles—particularly growing institutional adoption and increasing exchange-traded fund flows. These developments could make BTC more resilient than equities in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

“New US tariffs would likely trigger classic risk-off reflexes with equity weakness, dollar strength, yield softness. But unlike past cycles, crypto now enjoys structural ETF support and sovereign hedge narrative,” said Jag Kooner, from Bitfinex. “While BTC may dip initially alongside equities, any tariff-induced inflation expectations or dollar weakening could feed back into crypto rates positively,” he added.

Thanks to growing institutional adoption, more firms may now view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and macroeconomic volatility, especially if the dollar continues its downward trend, Kooner added.

Bitcoin’s near-term catalysts to watch for

In addition to inflation and trade concerns, there are other potential catalysts to watch for, Kooner stated. Specifically, traders will be looking at regulatory developments, especially those connected to the upcoming GENIUS Act.

“Bitcoin’s climb near all-time highs is anchored by consistent ETF flows and strong institutional interest. The upcoming catalysts: legislative clarity, ETF innovation, tariff news, and inflation prints serve as potential accelerants,” Jag Kooner, Bitfinex.

If Bitcoin breaks above its all-time high at $111,000, this could confirm a bullish trend in the near term, according to Kooner. However, a significant macro shock could push the asset back down to support between $105,000 and $108,000.