Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Make-or-Break Test as Bulls Target $86K Next

Bitcoin traded near $77,600 after rebounding from levels close to $60,000 seen two months ago. The recovery returned the price to the $75,000 to $80,000 resistance zone. Analysts are now watching whether Bitcoin could extend the move or face another rejection.

Two months earlier, the market showed a deeply oversold RSI and capitulation-style on-chain readings. At that stage, confidence in a near-term recovery had weakened across the market. The latest rebound has shifted attention back to upside levels.

Bitcoin Faces Breakout and Retest Risk

Analyst Michael van de Poppe said in an X post that markets are still looking for more upside in the coming weeks. He added that the Nasdaq continues to show stronger momentum, while Bitcoin remains behind that move.

Van de Poppe said there is little reason to dismiss further upside from current levels. He added that a clear break above $86,000 in the coming months would support the view that the market low is already in place. The analyst also said he already expects that low to be set with a larger probability.

However, in an X post, Rekt Capital said Bitcoin continues to face resistance at the 21-week EMA. Analyst added that Bitcoin must reclaim that level as support to avoid a weaker retest structure.

If that recovery does not happen, the analyst said the price could revisit the top of the double-bottom pattern broken last week.

Bitcoin Faces a Key Liquidity Squeeze

However, Ted pointed to liquidation clusters building below current levels. One of those areas sits near $80,000, where Bitcoin bottomed in November 2025.

Based on that setup, the analyst said the maximum pain scenario over the coming months could be a dump rather than a pump.

Analyst Ardi focused on the short positions stacked above the recent local high. In an X post, Ardi said several hundred million dollars in short exposure sits above $79,500, around the $79,900 area.

The analyst said months of positioning are concentrated in one dense liquidation band. If the green support zone holds during the retest, market makers could have an incentive to sweep that liquidity in the next few moves.

Source: X

Ardi said those buybacks could add strength to the advance and help Bitcoin move through $80,000. The analyst added that liquidity sitting only 2% above the price rarely remains untouched for long.

Analytical platform CoinGlass highlighted a pullback in Bitcoin derivatives activity. Trading volume fell 20.20% to $61.97 billion, while open interest dropped 3.03% to $57.45 billion. The figures pointed to softer participation and lighter positioning in futures.

At the same time, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market showed stronger capital demand. BlackRock’s IBIT entered the top 10 U.S. ETFs by inflows. This shift came as geopolitical tensions stayed in focus and some investors looked to Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty.
Related: Bitcoin Bulls Defend Trend While $2 Billion Inflows Fuel $85K Outlook