Bitcoin bull cycle indicator flashes green for the first time in 3 years: Is $100k next?

Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering the early stages of a new bull market, with the asset eyeing the $100,000 level after days of consolidation around $80,000.

The outlook follows CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator turning green for the first time since March 2023, a signal that has historically marked major shifts in Bitcoin’s momentum.

The indicator, which tracks long-term market conditions using moving averages and cycle data, has exited the bearish zone and entered the “early bull” phase, a transition that has often preceded sustained Bitcoin rallies.

In this line, insights shared by CryptoQuant on May 12 shows the indicator steadily recovering from deeply negative territory earlier in 2026 before crossing into the green zone in May, while Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Dan Moreno, similar transitions in 2019 and early 2023 signaled renewed bullish momentum and were followed by strong multi-month rallies that evolved into full bull markets.

However, the analysis noted that the signal is not infallible. In March 2022, the indicator briefly entered the early bull zone before Bitcoin resumed its decline during the broader crypto market downturn, marking the main historical exception.

The current setup appears stronger as the indicator has climbed steadily alongside improving price action rather than producing a short-lived spike, while bearish momentum has weakened significantly.

Another key takeaway is Bitcoin’s proximity to the psychologically important $100,000 level.

With the indicator back in the green zone, speculation is growing that a confirmed bull cycle could trigger another breakout attempt, with the chart suggesting the market may be nearing a decisive phase similar to past post-bear-market recoveries.

Bitcoin price analysis

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,866, down about 0.66% in the past 24 hours and 0.55% over the past week.

At the current price, Bitcoin is showing mixed but generally stable technical momentum. The 50-day SMA at $74,202 remains well below the current price, indicating Bitcoin is still trading in a short-term uptrend.

However, the 200-day SMA at $82,614 sits slightly above the current price, suggesting the broader long-term trend has yet to fully turn bullish.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 65.75, placing Bitcoin in neutral territory but close to overbought conditions.