Bitcoin Repeating 2022 Macro Wave 2 That Preceded an 8x Surge

The latest Bitcoin correction is drawing comparisons to the 2022 downturn, which came before the asset surged 8x to the 2025 all-time high.

Top market analyst TARA pointed to similarities in structure between these two market phases in a recent Bitcoin ($BTC) price analysis on X. Her analysis suggested that $BTC is currently in this repeating macro wave 2 pattern, offering clues about what comes next.

While no two cycles unfold the same way, her analysis of the behavior seen during the 2022 major pullback is raising questions about whether the current decline has not run its full course.

Comparing Bitcoin’s Current Correction With the 2022 Pattern

According to TARA’s analysis, the 2022 downturn followed a classic ABC corrective structure, with an initial decline, a relief rally, and then a final leg lower.

Wave A started from the November 2021 peak of $69,000 and pushed $BTC to a low of $33,000 in January 2022. The relief rally of wave B sparked a short-lived recovery from the low to $48,200 in March 2022. What followed was a steeper leg down during wave C, pulling the asset to the November 2022 bottom near $15,000.

The commentator suggested that the current market trend shows that Bitcoin may still be somewhere in the middle stages of a similar setup. In an accompanying chart, she marked the area between the end of wave B and the start of the final wave C as the current $BTC position.

However, TARA noted that there is not yet clear confirmation that the previous rebound to $82,800 in May marks the end of the relief rally phase. To confirm this, the analyst noted that Bitcoin would need to rebound to at least $72,800 and form another resistance there. From the current price of $61,900, this represents a 17% increase.

The Final $BTC Leg Lower Could Arrive Without Warning

The analyst further highlighted that one of the most notable features of the 2022 correction was how quickly the final decline unfolded. After the relief rally ended, Bitcoin moved lower with very few meaningful rebounds, offering little opportunity for market participants to reposition before prices dumped again.

Notably, wave C correction occurred between March and November 2022. In the first 12 weeks, $BTC recorded red candles in 11 of them, with its price dropping quickly from $48,200 to $17,500 in June 2022.

According to the analyst, this may repeat with no extra warnings. If the market follows a similar path as in 2022, the next major leg down could develop faster than many expect. However, she did not share a particular target for the final wave down.

What Happened After the 2022 Bitcoin Bottom

TARA also noted that prices did not immediately start rebounding after wave C reached its target bottom in November 2022. When Bitcoin hit $15,000 during the corrective phase, it spent about nine weeks consolidating within a relatively tight range. After this, $BTC finally broke above resistance and began a new upward phase.

That period of consolidation proved just as important as the decline itself. It allowed selling pressure to fade while longer-term buyers gradually returned to the market. If a similar process develops during the current cycle, patience may be required even after the coin reaches its bottom.

After this, however, Bitcoin rebounded massively. From the lows, it bounced over 8x to its October 2025 all-time high of $126,200. This proved that the macro wave 2 pattern was all part of a broader bullish picture where the asset retests key support levels after a bull run before launching beyond earlier highs to uncharted territories.

If this pattern repeats, $BTC could eventually break above the October 2025 peak to new all-time highs.