Bitcoin’s Most Dangerous Month About to Start

August isn’t exactly known for being a great month for Bitcoin (BTC). It’s been over a decade now that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading on exchanges, and this month often brings some of the biggest dips, no matter how strong the trend is.

If you look back over the last 13 years, Bitcoin has only closed August in the green four times. The rest? It’s mostly red, with losses often crossing into double-digit territory.

According to CryptoRank, the median August return is around -8.3%, and in some years, like 2011, 2014 or 2015, it got pretty ugly. Even in relatively good years like 2022 and 2023, BTC saw dips of 14% and 11.2% in August, respectively.

It’s been the same story every year: Summer rallies go bust, volumes get thin, and prices quietly go down as traders vanish and macro fears start to set in.

But here’s the catch — 2025 isn’t playing by the usual rules. After a shaky start, Bitcoin made a comeback, gaining almost 30% in Q2, and in July it surged by a solid 10.3%. The price structure seems to be stabilizing rather than hitting its limit.

Curse or cycle break?

There’s been no early August dump so far, and on-chain data suggests the selling pressure isn’t as strong as it has been in previous years. Exchange balances are lower, there’s more money coming in and the fear of another summer-long slump is starting to fade — at least for now.

If Bitcoin can have a good August, it won’t just be a one-off — it could be the start of a bigger change in how the market behaves. Q4 is usually when things get busy, and breaking the August curse might set the tone for what’s next.

This time, it looks like the market is more prepared, and maybe, just maybe, August will finally give Bitcoin a chance to shine.