Blockchain data may predict drug overdose surges months in advance: Chainalysis

Blockchain transaction data tied to cryptocurrency payments may provide an early signal of emerging drug crises, according to a new report from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

The study, which examined illicit market activity across darknet drug and fraud ecosystems, found that crypto flows connected to darknet markets reached nearly $2.6 billion in 2025, showing that online drug markets continue to operate at scale despite repeated law-enforcement takedowns. Vendors typically receive payments from personal wallets and centralized exchanges.

Beyond measuring criminal activity, Chainalysis argued that the data can track real-world health outcomes. Crypto payments to suppliers of fentanyl precursor chemicals declined sharply beginning in mid-2023. Months later, overdose deaths also fell in the United States and Canada after peaking in 2023.

According to the report, monitoring transactions linked to precursor suppliers could provide three to six months of advance warning before overdose trends appear in official public-health statistics.

Darknet market flows. Source: Chainalysis

Crypto drug purchases linked to higher hospitalizations

The analysis also compared transaction data with Canadian hospital records. Small payments of less than $500 showed no clear relationship with emergency visits or deaths. Larger transfers were associated with rising stimulant-related hospitalizations and fatalities, suggesting the transactions likely reflect bulk purchasing or redistribution rather than personal consumption.

Related: Crypto launderers are turning away from centralized exchanges: Chainalysis

“Money moves before the crisis hits. People buy drugs before they redistribute them, and users consume them before they overdose and require medical care,” the report said, adding that since blockchain records update instantly, they can serve as a high-fidelity “early warning system.”

Crypto transactions provide an early signal of emerging drug crises. Source: Chainalysis

The report also revealed that following the closure of Abacus Market in July 2025, activity quickly migrated to successor platforms such as TorZon. It said that vendors routinely resupply across platforms and relocate after disruptions.

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Fraud shop volumes drop to $87.5 million

Fraud marketplaces showed a different trend. Onchain volumes fell from about $205 million to $87.5 million year-over-year after infrastructure takedowns, but activity shifted toward wholesale operations, particularly Chinese-language networks operating on Telegram that handle large bulk sales of stolen payment data.

Chainalysis reported Friday that crypto transactions linked to suspected human-trafficking networks rose 85% in 2025, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. The activity was largely tied to Southeast Asia and closely connected to scam compounds, online casinos and Chinese-language money-laundering groups, per the report.

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