Could Bitcoin Experience an 80% Drop Like the Old Bear Markets? Chinese Analyst Explains by Looking at Whales

Chinese on-chain analyst Murphy drew attention to the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) whales in this cycle in the latest data he published.

According to the analysis, whale wallets holding at least 100 BTC currently hold a total of 12.17 million BTC, or 61% of the circulating supply. This is similar to levels at the peak of the 2021 bull market and well above the approximately 10 million BTC level reached during the 2017 bull cycle.

According to Murphy, many experienced investors shifted their holdings to new institutional investors during this cycle, changing the dynamics of market participation. However, whales’ optimism or fear-driven attitude will continue to determine Bitcoin’s future bull-bear cycle.

During 2017–2018, when the BTC price began to correct from $19,587, whales lost an average of $1 billion per day. This sustained and uncontrolled selling pressure led to an 80% crash, triggering a year-long bear market.

The scale of losses grew even larger during the 2021–2022 period. Whales lost $3 billion in a single day during the May 19, 2021, crash, and $4 billion during the Luna crash. Consecutive daily losses exceeding $2 billion during this period signaled the end of the bull market.

However, according to the analyst, the current cycle presents a different picture. The $2 billion single-day loss seen on August 5, 2024, was the sharpest selling panic to date, while the daily losses of $1.1 billion and $800 million experienced during Trump’s renewed tariff wars in February and April 2025 were much more limited.

During the most recent crash on October 11, 2025, whales displayed remarkable composure, losing only $400 million. According to the analyst, this behavior indicates a significant maturation in investor psychology.

Therefore, Murphy states that a repeat of a long and deep bear market like the past (80% decline) no longer seems likely in this cycle.

*This is not investment advice.