CryptoQuant Warns Bitcoin Rebound May Be a Bear Market Rally, Not a Trend Reversal

• CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s 10% rebound from last week’s $57,700 low to around $63,000 remains a bear-market recovery, not a confirmed reversal.
• Demand has improved after 30-day total Bitcoin demand contracted by about 650,000 $BTC in early June, while Coinbase Premium recovered to -0.062.
• The Bull Score Index remains at 20, far below the 60 level CryptoQuant says is needed for a sustainable rally and trend reversal confirmation.

Bitcoin’s latest rebound has improved the tape, but CryptoQuant says the move still looks more like a bear-market recovery than a true trend reversal. $BTC has climbed about 10% from last week’s low near $57,700 to trade around $63,000, reclaiming $60,000 as support. That bounce has been helped by July seasonality, a month that has historically delivered stronger results even during bear-market years. Still, the recovery is not yet a regime change, because the firm’s broader indicators remain defensive rather than bullish.

Bitcoin tends to rally in July, even in bear markets.

In 2018 and 2022, $BTC gained +20% and +17% in July despite weak broader trends.

With Bitcoin entering this July fresh off a $57.7K bear-market low, seasonality now skews near-term risk toward more upside. pic.twitter.com/VQuNbfzL7L

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 8, 2026

Demand improves, but the bull signal stays weak

CryptoQuant’s near-term case starts with demand. Its 30-day total Bitcoin demand measure, combining spot and perpetual futures activity, has recovered from its sharpest contraction since 2022 after falling by about 650,000 $BTC in early June. The metric is now close to neutral. Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May. The demand engine is closer to restarting, but CryptoQuant said a move back into positive territory is still needed to confirm real ignition.

US investor appetite is also less negative than it was. The Coinbase Premium Index, used as a proxy for US spot demand, recovered from deeply negative levels in early June to -0.062 as Bitcoin rebounded from its lows. That suggests selling pressure on US exchanges has eased and institutional demand may be stabilizing. CryptoQuant also pointed to undervaluation: traders’ unrealized profit margin fell below -24% in early June, far beneath the firm’s -12% undervaluation threshold. Short-term holder capitulation may have formed a local floor, which explains why the rebound has room to extend.

The warning is that none of this yet amounts to a confirmed market turn. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which blends onchain, market and valuation indicators, stands at 20, well inside bearish territory and far below the 60 level the firm says is needed to support a sustainable rally. July’s historical tendency to rise, including roughly 20% in 2018 and 17% in 2022, may help sentiment. But seasonality can lift prices without changing the cycle, leaving Bitcoin’s rebound encouraging, tactical and still vulnerable until demand and broader market strength confirm together. For now, the rebound looks useful, but the burden of proof remains with buyers trying to convert improved demand into a durable recovery rather than another bear-market bounce across the market now.