Experienced Analyst Warns Bitcoin Followers to Be Cautious During the Summer: Here’s Why

Renowned market analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his latest video, discussed US labor market data and its potential impact on the stock market and Bitcoin. Cowen stated that the labor market currently appears resilient, but investors should exercise caution during the summer months.

Cowen stated that the latest data showed the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, which was within expectations.

The analyst stated that the fact that layoffs and initial jobless claims remain at historically low levels supports the view that the US economy is not yet in a recession.

However, Cowen, referring to data from previous years (2023, 2024, and 2025), reminded that unemployment claims generally tend to increase in June and during the summer months. The analyst said, “I don’t think we’re in recession zone unless initial jobless claims reach the 300,000 level.”

Cowen, commenting on the S&P 500 index trading at all-time highs, said this was not unusual for “midterm election years.”

Pointing to similar cycles in 2014 and 2018, the analyst noted that in those years the market rose until September, but was then followed by sharp corrections.

Cowen, who maintains a cautious and bearish stance on Bitcoin, said that BTC remains weak compared to the stock markets. Noting that while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are hitting record highs, Bitcoin is far from its peak, the analyst argued that a potential correction in the stock markets could drag Bitcoin to new lows.

Cowen stated, “Bitcoin is currently weaker than other assets, and when those assets enter a window of weakness in the second half of the year, I expect Bitcoin to also move downwards and likely hit a lower bottom.”

*This is not investment advice.