Strategy’s BTC Yield turns negative for first time in years

Investors buy the common stock of Michael Saylor’s bitcoin (BTC) treasury company, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), because they have faith in management to produce ‘BTC Yield.’ Unfortunately, that metric has turned negative for the first time in years.

Positive for every year since 2020 and every quarter since April 2023, BTC Yield is the increase in Strategy’s BTC holdings per share of MSTR. This quarter, Strategy’s BTC Yield is -1%.

In other words, Strategy holds less BTC per share of MSTR than it did on September 30, 2025.

Read more: Strategy’s mNAV falls to 19-month low as BTC outperforms

The downturn follows the company’s contentious decision to dilute MSTR to place $1.44 billion in its ‘USD Reserve,’ rather than buying BTC. This so-called USD Reserve, which is simply cash, will pay future dividend obligations on its preferred shares.

This quarter’s negative BTC Yield also reflects waning investor confidence in MSTR, which has been steadily losing its premium to the company’s BTC holdings for years.

Strategy’s declining BTC Yield and mNAV

BTC Yield is the core metric by which to gauge Saylor’s goal of accretive dilution. Specifically, Strategy’s sale of MSTR when it trades at a multiple-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) greater than 1x, as well as other securities like bonds and preferred shares, allows the company to buy additional BTC holdings per MSTR share. This accretes BTC on a dilution-adjusted basis, also known as accretive dilution.

Of course, selling down the mNAV premium of MSTR in the first place punishes prior shareholders. Indeed, accretive dilution only benefits prior shareholders if future shareholders are willing to pay an even higher mNAV, or if the price of bitcoin subsequently rallies to recoup the dilution.

Management, of course, typically exclude this simple explanation when they boast about their positive, annual BTC Yield figures since 2020.

For years, they have avoided publishing a chart of MSTR’s basic mNAV premium – arguably the company’s most important metric of investor confidence. That is probably because Strategy’s mNAV has been declining since May 2023.

When new investors are willing to pay less of a premium for MSTR versus simply buying BTC directly, this indicates reduced confidence in management.

Currently, investors are willing to pay a mere 16% premium for the Enterprise Value of Strategy, including its preferred shares and bonds, above its BTC holdings. Today’s 16% compares to an mNAV premium higher than 240% as recently as November 2024.

The company’s basic mNAV, excluding preferred shares and bonds, is actually less than 1x. In other words, the market capitalization of MSTR is currently less than the value of Strategy’s BTC.