Strategy’s Unprompted $25,000 BTC Price Scenario Raises Eyebrows

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently took to the X social media network to emphasize that even if Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $74,000, it would have 5.9x coverage over its convertible debt. Even at $25,000 per BTC, coverage would still be 2x.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,567, according to CoinGecko data.

This was clearly meant to reassure investors but was interpreted as implicitly acknowledging vulnerability.

The common assumption is that the company might be more exposed to BTC volatility than it publicly claims.

Why the concerns could be overblown

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are far larger than its convertible debt. This means the company’s Bitcoin acts as a massive cushion, and they would not be forced to sell immediately even in a sharp downturn.

Much of the debt is convertible or long-dated, which gives MicroStrategy time to ride out volatility, rather than having to liquidate assets at a loss.

Analysts note that the company has substantial non-BTC assets and cash flow from its business operations.

Even if Bitcoin temporarily loses value, the company can service debt with operating revenue without selling BTC.