Why Gold Is Winning Over Bitcoin in 2025: Liquidity, Trade, and Trust

Gold is beating bitcoin BTC$90,776.77 this year — not just in price action, but in investor confidence. Since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in early 2025, many expected a strong and sustained rally in the digital asset. But nearly two years later, gold has quietly outperformed, raising questions about whether bitcoin is truly ready to rival traditional safe-haven assets.

While bitcoin is down about 12% since the launch of the ETFs in January 2024, gold has risen 58% over the same period. For Mark Connors, founder and chief macro strategist of bitcoin investment advisory Risk Dimensions and former global head of risk advisory at Credit Suisse, the answer is straightforward: not yet.

“Bitcoin is still too young,” Connors told CoinDesk in a recent interview. “The buyers that matter — central banks, sovereign wealth funds, large asset allocators — they still prefer gold.”

The reason isn’t just volatility or regulatory uncertainty, though those play a role. According to Connors, the deeper issue is infrastructure and historical precedent. Gold has centuries of trust and established financial channels behind it. Central banks already have gold accounts. Gold is used in trade. Bitcoin, by contrast, still sits outside that system.

“Some of these institutions haven’t exactly called Unchained and said, ‘Can I get a wallet?’” Connors said. “They just aren’t there yet.”

This distinction has become more visible as BRICS nations — including China, India and Russia — have accelerated their gold accumulation. In some cases, they’ve even begun using gold to settle oil trades. That’s a critical role that bitcoin has not yet stepped into. Despite its design as a decentralized, borderless currency, bitcoin isn’t being used for international settlement at scale.

“There’s a trade component to gold that brings real demand,” Connors said. “Bitcoin doesn’t have that yet.”

Bitcoin’s Price Drop Tied to Liquidity, Not Sentiment

The gap in performance between bitcoin and gold has widened in recent months. Bitcoin is down over 30% since its July peak. Gold, by contrast, has posted steady gains, climbing above $4,100 per ounce.

Connors doesn’t attribute this to a shift in sentiment alone. Instead, he points to a broader liquidity squeeze driven by U.S. fiscal policy.

“When the Treasury isn’t spending, there’s less money in the system,” he said. “And bitcoin is hypersensitive to liquidity because of its leverage structure, especially in Asia.”

During the U.S. government shutdown earlier this year, the Treasury’s balance sheet swelled from around $600 billion to nearly $1 trillion. With spending frozen, liquidity dried up across both traditional and crypto markets. But bitcoin felt the pain more acutely.

“We’re all on the same water table,” Connors said. “When the U.S. stops spending, it affects capital flows globally.”

The shutdown may have ended, but the Treasury hasn’t fully restarted spending at scale. That delay, Connors argues, has left markets in a kind of limbo — especially risk assets like bitcoin.

A Longer Road Ahead

The underperformance may not be permanent. Connors sees signs that liquidity could return to the market, especially if the U.S. government begins issuing more Treasury bills to fund deficit spending. He also believes that as trust in fiat currencies weakens — particularly in emerging markets — bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral asset will grow.

Still, he cautioned against assuming bitcoin will replace gold anytime soon. The comparison, he said, may be useful as a reference point, but it doesn’t reflect how large institutions actually allocate capital.

“They’re not flipping a coin between gold and bitcoin,” Connors said. “They’re choosing what fits into their mandates. And gold fits — bitcoin doesn’t yet.”

If anything, the recent divergence shows that crypto’s path to becoming a global reserve asset may be slower than many expected. Not because the technology doesn’t work, but because trust and habit take time to build.

“Gold’s been around forever,” Connors said. “Bitcoin is still growing up.”