Why the US Jobs Data Makes a Worrying Case for Bitcoin

Bitcoin faces renewed macro pressure after the latest US jobs report signaled a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing Treasury yields higher and reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly double consensus expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, showing continued labor market resilience.

While strong employment is positive for the broader economy, it complicates the outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Strong Jobs Data Delays Rate Cut Expectations

Markets had been anticipating potential rate cuts in the coming months amid slowing growth concerns. However, a resilient labor market reduces the urgency for monetary easing.

As a result, investors repriced expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Bond markets reacted immediately. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped toward the 4.2% level, rising several basis points after the report. The two-year yield also climbed, reflecting reduced probability of near-term cuts.

Higher yields tighten financial conditions. They increase borrowing costs across the economy and raise the discount rate used to value risk assets.

Why Higher Yields Pressure Bitcoin

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. When Treasury yields rise, capital tends to rotate toward safer, yield-generating assets such as government bonds.

At the same time, a stronger dollar often accompanies rising yields. A firmer dollar reduces global liquidity and makes speculative assets less attractive.

Bitcoin Price Over the Past Week. Source: CoinGecko

This combination creates headwinds for crypto markets.

Although Bitcoin briefly stabilized near the $70,000 level earlier in the week, the jobs data increases the risk of renewed volatility. Without a clear signal that the Fed will ease policy, liquidity remains constrained.

“For Bitcoin, this report is a short-term headwind. A beat of this magnitude dampens the probability of a March rate cut and reinforces the Fed’s pause at 3.50%-3.75%. The cheaper money catalyst that risk assets need to mount a sustained recovery just got pushed further out. Expect the dollar to firm and yields to reprice higher, both of which pressure BTC into a range in the near term,” David Hernandez, Crypto Investment Specialist at 21shares told BeInCrypto.

Market Structure Amplifies Macro Stress

The recent crash demonstrated how sensitive Bitcoin has become to macro shifts. Large ETF flows, institutional hedging, and leveraged positioning can accelerate moves when financial conditions tighten.

A stronger labor market does not guarantee Bitcoin will fall. However, it reduces one of the key bullish catalysts: expectations of easier monetary policy.

“In the short term, Bitcoin looks defensive. The key level to watch is $65,000. However, if this strong report turns out to be temporary rather than a sign the economy is heating up again, the Fed could still cut rates later this year. When that happens, Bitcoin’s limited supply becomes important again. Strong data today may delay a rally, but it doesn’t break the long-term bullish case,” Hernandez said.

Fed Rate Cut Probability for March 2026. Source: CME FedWatch

The Bottom Line

The latest US jobs report reinforces a “higher-for-longer” rate environment.

For Bitcoin, that is not immediately catastrophic. But it does make sustained upside more difficult.

Unless liquidity improves or yields retreat, the macro backdrop now leans cautious rather than supportive for crypto markets.

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