How Prediction Markets Are Becoming an Information Source for US Voters

A Paradigm-Echelon Insights poll of 1,000 likely voters revealed that over one-third already use prediction markets, whether it’s to place bets or check odds.

The findings arrive as prediction market open interest recently reached a record high of $1.3 billion, driven by surging user adoption on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Why it matters:

• Prediction markets are shifting from niche trading venues into mainstream information tools used by tens of millions of Americans.
• 19% of respondents browsed odds without placing bets, per Paradigm, positioning these platforms as information tools.
• The space has also attracted significant interest from institutions and Wall Street.

The details:

• According to the survey, 36% of voters already use prediction markets. 11% of respondents placed bets, 19% browsed odds only, and 6% did both.
• 38% of voters ages 18-34 placed money on outcomes, compared to just 3% of those 65 and older.
• Black and Hispanic voters reported higher usage rates than white voters.
• Men participated at 46%, compared with 31% for women.
• 35% of respondents backed that prediction markets should be legal, while 24% favored legalization in some instances.

The big picture:

• Prediction market open interest hit a record in March 2026, with Kalshi and Polymarket posting a combined $5.1 billion in spot volume last week.
• Prediction platforms have faced scrutiny over alleged insider trading, while regulators have pushed back against contracts tied to war and violence.

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