Iran warns against infrastructure attacks amid war escalation

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran harbors no hostility toward Americans, but cautioned against attacks on its infrastructure. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

President Pezeshkian’s warning comes during ongoing hostilities in the 2026 Iran War, following a joint U.S.-Israel military operation. The markets reacted with skepticism, dropping the April 7 ceasefire odds from 10% to 8% in the last 24 hours. The April 15 odds also slipped, sitting at 20% YES, while the April 30 market is at 38% YES, signaling muted optimism for a near-term resolution.

The term structure suggests traders expect a potential catalyst between April 15 and April 30, with a 19-point jump during this period. Actual USDC traded across these markets was substantial, with $165,472 daily for April 7 and $617,772 for April 15. However, it takes $48,226 to move the April 7 market by 5 points, indicating institutional players are likely involved.

This statement from Iran’s president, sourced from a social media aggregator, doesn’t provide new diplomatic progress but rather reiterates existing tensions. The odds reflect this, with April 7’s 8% YES implying traders see little chance of a ceasefire within six days. Buying a YES share at 8¢ offers a potential 12.5x return if a ceasefire occurs, but that would require a rapid de-escalation, contrary to current signals.

Watch for any intermediaries like Oman or Qatar stepping in, or new diplomatic language from U.S. or Iranian leaders. Specific changes in operational language or envoys could shift market expectations.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 19.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 56.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 65.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES

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