Prediction market users await Artemis II mission splashdown

Users on the prediction markets platform Kalshi are using the platform’s event contracts to bet on the aftermath of the Artemis II mission, NASA’s first manned spacecraft to the Moon in more than 50 years.

As of Friday, several event contracts related to a Moon landing were available on the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms, but many users were taking positions on what would be said at NASA’s news conference following the splashdown.

With just over $4,000 in volume on the event contracts, Kalshi users anticipate that NASA officials will mention the words “president” or “prime minister,” “radiation,” and “damage” in connection with the Moon mission.

The Orion spacecraft from the Artemis II mission is expected to return to Earth at about 12:07 am UTC on Saturday, having launched from Florida on April 1 and completed a flyby of the Moon with a crew of four people. The NASA mission followed its Artemis I in 2022, which orbited the Moon with an unmanned vessel, and preceded its plans to land on the lunar surface in 2028.

Using positions in event contracts on prediction markets has drawn controversy because platforms like Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcomes of events related to the US-Israeli war against Iran. Some of the bets, which some lawmakers have described as suspicious due to their timing, have prompted calls for legislation to address potential insider trading on prediction markets.

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Kalshi offered an event contract for a manned Moon landing by NASA, with a 63% chance before 2030 and a 41% chance before 2029.

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