US deploys 18 additional A-10 aircraft to Middle East

The US has sent 18 more A-10 aircraft to the Middle East as part of Operation Epic Fury. The odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 are now at 54% YES, down from 56% yesterday.

Traders are adjusting their positions following this military move. The April 30 market is at 54% YES, a 2% drop. The December 31 market remains at 64.5% YES, suggesting expectations for later developments. The March 31 market is stagnant at 0.1% YES.

The A-10s enhance air support and strike capabilities, but traders are wary of immediate ground action. The 11-point spread between April 30 and December 31 reflects anticipation of a later catalyst.

Trading shows $1.5M in USDC volume in the April 30 market, with $61,472 needed to move the market by 5 points, indicating deep liquidity. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop at 3:15 PM.

This deployment strengthens the US military stance in the region but hasn’t significantly changed ground troop odds. At 54¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if US forces enter Iran, offering an 85% potential gain. Watch for Pentagon updates or changes in CENTCOM’s language for new signals.

Markets Impacted

• US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
• US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 53.5% YES
• US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 64.5% YES

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