US-Iran negotiations stalled, ceasefire odds dip

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reports US-Iran negotiations are stalled. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 7.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Traders show a bearish view on ceasefire prospects. The April 7 market dropped 3 points, nearing resolution. The April 15 market is at 19.5% YES, down from 21%. The April 30 market holds at 39.5% YES. The biggest change is between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point jump, indicating traders expect developments in mid-April.

Over $7M in face value trades, but actual USDC spent shows caution. The April 7 market saw $164,941 in real dollars, showing traders’ hesitance without concrete developments. With $46,774 needed to shift odds by 5 points, significant capital is required to change market sentiment.

The Israeli report signals bearish sentiment but isn’t decisive. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire show skepticism. At 8¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, a 12.5x return. A breakthrough in the next six days is unlikely, per current market sentiment.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the US State Department, and moves by intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Changes in diplomatic activity could shift market sentiment before April 7.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 7.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 19.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 39.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 56.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 65.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES

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