US-Iran Talks Stalled, Ceasefire Odds Drop

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reports that US-Iran negotiations have stalled. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% last week.

Traders are adjusting their expectations for a ceasefire. The April 7 market is pessimistic at 8% YES. The April 15 market shows slightly better odds at 20%, but skepticism remains. Odds for April 30 rise to 40%, suggesting traders anticipate a possible catalyst in mid-April.

Volume at $1,356,072 in USDC was traded over the past 24 hours, with $46,774 needed to move the April 7 market by 5 points. The largest price move was a 3-point drop at 9:56 PM, reflecting bearish sentiment. The market is sensitive to news flow.

The stalled talks suggest no immediate diplomatic breakthrough, keeping military escalation a risk. Traders have adjusted, dropping odds for a near-term ceasefire. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved—a 12.5x return if a last-minute diplomatic solution occurs.

Watch for CENTCOM statements and any intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar. Changes in rhetoric or new negotiations could shift odds.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 7.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 19.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 39.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 56.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 65.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 75.5% YES

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