Asia Morning Briefing: Polymarket Bettors Foresee $5K ETH by End of August

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

As Asia begins its trading day, ETH is trading above $4600, up 10% in the last 24 hours, as the possibility of a rate cut in September works its way through the market. Some traders see it likely that ETH could quickly challenge its all-time high of $4876 set in 2021.

Polymarket bettors are going a step further; they believe that $5000 is possible before the end of August, and they are also giving a 28% chance of the asset’s price crossing $5800 before the month ends.

The surge has helped pull bitcoin dominance down from 65% to 59% as traders rotate into altcoins.

In a recent report, analysts at Glassnode wrote that ETH is now nearing the +1 standard deviation “Active Realized Price” band around $4.7K, a level that has triggered heavy selling in past cycles.

But behind the scenes, there’s a growing liquidity sink that might weigh heavily on ETH’s next phase of growth.

A new CryptoQuant report shows that Ethereum is increasingly serving as a liquidity source for TRON’s USDT ecosystem.

On Aug. 9, CryptoQuant data shows that a record $7.7 million worth of ETH was bridged to TRON and converted into USDT, while June 25 saw $19 million worth of ERC20 tokens, mostly USDC, make the same move.

Inflows from TRON back to Ethereum remain minimal, highlighting a one-way flow of value that supports TRON’s stablecoin economy but siphons liquidity from Ethereum’s native DeFi activity.

Over time, persistent outflows can weigh on spot demand and reduce Ethereum’s ongoing fee revenue and staking rewards as more of the stablecoin economy clears elsewhere.

If this trend persists, Ethereum’s role could increasingly resemble that of a wholesale funding layer, powering liquidity for rival networks rather than capturing the transactional activity itself.

That dynamic may not derail the current rally in the short term, but it could limit the sustainability of higher valuations if capital flight toward faster, cheaper settlement layers like TRON continues unchecked.

But for now, the market has its eyes on $5K ETH.

(CoinDesk)

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin holds $119,943 (+0.4%) with bullish momentum intact, though resistance looms at $123K amid ETF outflows and ETH’s rally, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.

ETH: ETH is trading above $4600 as the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut looms large.

Gold: Gold edged up to around $3,350 as U.S. inflation data reinforced Fed rate cut bets, while easing U.S.-China trade tensions limited gains.

S&P 500: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs as July CPI data met expectations, boosting bets on a September Fed rate cut and lifting tech stocks.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1% after a record close Tuesday.