Ethereum Price Analysis: Sellers Remain in Control as ETH Recovery Hits a Wall

Ethereum has been under pressure across higher and lower timeframes over the past few weeks. While the price has staged a relief bounce from recent lows near $1.5K, the broader structure continues to favor sellers as $ETH trades beneath major moving averages and inside a long-term descending channel. At the same time, exchange reserve data continues to trend lower aggressively, suggesting persistent supply withdrawal from centralized exchanges despite the weak price action.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, $ETH remains trapped inside the long-term descending channel that has governed the price action for several months. The recent rebound from the $1.5K support zone allowed buyers to recover part of the latest selloff. However, the bounce has so far failed to alter the broader bearish market structure.

The most important resistance sits between $2K and $2.2K, which is highlighted by the confluence of the 100-day moving average and a major supply zone. A daily close above this region would be the first meaningful signal that downside momentum is shifting and could open the door toward the $2.4K highs, where the 200-day moving average also currently resides. Until that happens, $ETH will likely continue to print lower highs and lower lows. The inability to reclaim the $2K-$2.2K resistance zone keeps the broader trend bearish.

On the downside, the $1.5K support region remains the key level to watch. This zone recently attracted strong demand and produced the latest recovery. A breakdown below it would expose the lower boundary of the descending channel and potentially trigger another leg lower toward the $1K region. The RSI has also recovered from oversold conditions but remains below bullish territory, suggesting that the recent rebound appears corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained trend reversal.

$ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a more constructive short-term structure. Following the sharp selloff into the $1.5K demand zone, $ETH has formed a series of higher lows, supported by a rising trendline that has guided the recovery over the past two weeks.

The rebound culminated in a strong impulsive move toward the $1.85K decision area, where sellers quickly re-entered the market. Since reaching that level, price has struggled to push higher again and has begun consolidating beneath resistance.

Currently, $ETH is trading near $1.75K while holding just above the short-term ascending trendline. This creates a near-term inflection point. As long as the trendline remains intact, buyers may attempt another push toward the $1.85K resistance zone.

A successful breakout above that area would significantly improve short-term sentiment and could accelerate a move toward the higher-timeframe supply zone around $2K.

Conversely, losing the ascending trendline would likely invalidate the recent recovery structure and shift focus back toward the $1.5K support area. A breakdown below that zone would restore full bearish control and increase the probability of continuation toward much lower price levels.

On-Chain Analysis

Ethereum’s exchange reserve continues to decline aggressively, reaching approximately 14.6 million $ETH. The metric has been trending downward since mid-2025, even as the price has experienced substantial volatility.

A falling exchange reserve generally indicates that coins are being withdrawn from trading venues, reducing immediately available sell-side liquidity. Historically, sustained reserve declines tend to be viewed as a constructive long-term signal because they reflect accumulation and self-custody behavior among market participants.

However, the current divergence is noteworthy. Despite exchange balances falling to new lows, $ETH remains unable to establish a bullish market structure. This suggests that macro sentiment and broader market conditions continue to outweigh the positive supply dynamics in the short term.

Nevertheless, if demand returns while exchange reserves remain near record lows, the reduced available supply could amplify future upside moves. For now, the on-chain backdrop remains structurally supportive, even though the technical picture still requires $ETH to reclaim the $2K resistance region before a larger bullish reversal can be confirmed.