Ethereum Price Hits Breakdown Target — But Is a Bigger Drop to $1,000 Coming?

Ethereum price hit its projected breakdown target near $1,800 in early February. It even slipped to $1,740 before bouncing. Since then, $ETH has rebounded almost 23%, giving traders hope that the worst may be over.

But price rebounds inside downtrends often look strong at first. The real question is whether this bounce is supported by strong buyers. Right now, charts, on-chain data, and technical metrics suggest that support remains weak. Several warning signs still point to downside risk.

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The $ETH Price Breakdown Worked, But the Rebound Lacks Real Strength

On February 5, Ethereum completed a major breakdown pattern on the daily chart, as predicted by BeInCrypto analysts. This pattern usually signals that sellers are taking control. The projected target was near $1,800. Ethereum price followed that path and dropped to $1,740 on February 6.

After hitting this zone, $ETH rebounded about 23%. At first glance, this looks like strong dip buying as the February 6 price candle saw a large lower wick. But momentum tells a different story.

Between February 2 and February 8, the price made lower highs. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks short-term momentum, moved higher.

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence, where momentum improves but price fails to follow.

In simple terms, price is struggling to rise, even though short-term momentum looks better. That usually means sellers are still active in the background. So while the breakdown target was reached, the rebound does not yet show deep conviction.

This weak follow-through sets the stage for the next risk.

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Short-Term Bounce Is Slipping Into Another Bearish Setup

Because the rebound lacks strong follow-through, the next thing to watch is the structure of the move. On the 12-hour chart, Ethereum is forming a bearish pole and flag.

First, the price dropped sharply. Then it rebounded inside a rising channel. This is a classic continuation pattern in downtrends.

It often leads to another leg lower as volume confirms the risk. On-Balance Volume, which tracks real buying and selling activity, is staying weak. It is not rising aggressively, like the price. This means fewer real buyers are supporting the rebound. Additionally, the OBV metric itself is close to breaking down its own ascending trendline. If volume breaks down, this flag structure could fail.

That would open the door to deeper losses, around 50% from the lower trendline levels. To understand whether buyers, who led the 23% rebound, can prevent that, we need to look on-chain.

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Are Short-Term Traders Buying As Long-Term Holders Sell?

On-chain data shows that the recent rebound is being driven mainly by short-term traders, not long-term investors.

A key metric here is short-term Holder NUPL, which measures whether recent buyers are sitting in profit or loss.

In early February, as Ethereum dropped to $1,740, short-term holder NUPL fell to around -0.72, placing it firmly in the capitulation zone. This reflected heavy unrealized losses among recent buyers.

During the 23% rebound, however, NUPL recovered to about -0.47. That is an improvement of roughly 35% from the bottom. While it remains negative, the speed of this recovery shows that many short-term traders rushed in to buy the dip.

This pattern closely resembles past failed bottom formations.

On March 10, 2025, NUPL also rebounded to around -0.45 while $ETH traded near $1,865. At that time, many traders believed a bottom had formed. A more durable bottom only appeared on April 8, 2025, when NUPL dropped close to -0.80, roughly 75% deeper than the March level. That phase marked true seller exhaustion and preceded a sustained recovery. The price was around $1,470 at the time.

Today’s structure looks much closer to March 2025 than April 2025. Losses have eased too early, suggesting that panic has not fully cleared. At the same time, long-term holders remain cautious.

The 30-day rolling Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks investors holding $ETH for more than 155 days, remains negative. On February 4, outflows stood near -10,681 $ETH. By February 8, they had widened to around -19,399 $ETH.

This represents an increase in net selling of roughly 82% in just four days. This signals weak conviction at current levels. So the rebound is being driven mainly by short-term traders chasing a bounce, while long-term investors continue reducing exposure.

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Key Ethereum Price Levels Show Why the $1,000 Risk Is Still Alive

All technical and on-chain signals now point to a weak structure. Ethereum must reclaim key resistance to stay safe. The first resistance is near $2,150.

Holding above this would ease short-term pressure. The major invalidation level is $2,780.

Only above this would the bearish structure truly break. On the downside, risk remains heavy.

Key support levels are:

• $1,990: short-term support
• $1,750: Fibonacci support
• $1,510: major retracement zone (close to the April 8, 2025 bottom)
• $1,000: bear flag projection

A daily close below $1,990 would weaken the rebound. Losing $1,750 would expose the $1,500 $ETH price zone. If the bearish flag fully breaks, the projected move points toward $1,000.

That would mean a drop of nearly 50% from current levels. Right now, Ethereum is still below major resistance.

Volume is weak. Long-term holders are selling. And Short-term traders dominate activity. Until these conditions change, the risk of a much deeper Ethereum price move remains real.

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