Ethereum rally builds on $66.9B flows – Sustainable or stretched?

Ethereum held the $2,000 support level and extended its upward structure, reaching a local high of $2,147. Over the past four days, each pullback formed a higher low, showing buyers stepped in at elevated levels.

At press time, $ETH traded at $2,136, up 4.81% on the daily chart and 3% over the week.

Despite this strength, analyst Darkfost warned that rising speculation could introduce higher volatility.

Speculators dominate Ethereum, with Futures outpacing Spot

Ethereum’s structure shifted as derivatives activity expanded faster than Spot participation.

According to Darkfost, Ethereum’s Open Interest [OI] recovered from 5 million in October to 6.4 million Ethereum [$ETH]. Binance leads this recovery with over 2.3 million $ETH in OI on the exchange.

As a result, futures activity moved ahead of Spot demand.

At press time, Spot-to-Futures Volume Ratio on Binance dropped to 0.13, marking its lowest level this year. This suggested futures volume ran nearly seven times higher than Spot volume.

On top of that, the Derivatives Taker Buy-Sell Ratio remained positive over the past five days. That showed buyers maintained control across derivatives positioning.

In fact, total inflows into futures positions reached $66.9 billion. This buildup suggested that speculation continued to drive short-term price movement.

While speculation tends to increase volatility, recent futures flows have substantially boosted upside momentum.

Looking at the Momentum indicator, it climbed from a negative zone around -103 to 159, indicating strengthening upside momentum.

At the same time, the upside EMA has remained above 50, averaging around 59, signaling increased buying pressure in the market. Therefore, if capital continues to flow into futures, $ETH could hold above $2.1k and target $2370.

Spot market lags amid reduced liquidity

Ethereum’s Futures have outpaced the Spot market, specifically due to reduced market liquidity. On the Spot side, investors have shied away from participation amid persistent global market instability.

In fact, Ethereum’s liquidity on Binance dropped to levels not seen since January 2026. Ethereum Liquidity Ratio fell to 5.1, indicating a significant decrease in trading activity on Binance.

As such, the cumulative 30-day turnover fell to 16.6 million $ETH, a massive drop from 20 to 25 million $ETH recorded in 2025. This suggests that investors have made fewer deposits or withdrawals, suggesting they are just sitting on the sidelines.

Even more concerning for the spot side activity, most participants have continued to withdraw capital. CoinGlass data showed that sellers have dumped over $4.4 billion in the past week, with $748 million sold in the past 24 hours.

The reduced liquidity and continued selling, however, risk pulling $ETH down, with extended consolidation between $2k and $2.1k most likely.