Rare monthly buy signal flashes for Ethereum—but the bullish case isn’t clear-cut

The Ethereum [$ETH] price action was in a longer-term downtrend, but has rallied 8.05% in the past week and 4.9% in the past 24 hours alone. Yet, according to data from Farside Investors, the Ethereum spot ETF flows since June 17, 2026, measured a negative $358.3 million.

These persistent outflows underlined the bearish market sentiment behind the leading crypto altcoin. It has lost two major support levels in 2026: the $3.2k and $2.0k levels.

AMBCrypto reported that Ethereum, trading at $1.5k, witnessed strong bearish positioning, but also warned of a possible short squeeze.

The taker buy-sell ratio jumped back above 1 in the past couple of days of trading. The metric’s 7-day moving average also rose back above 1. This showed that the recent gains were partially driven by aggressive buyer orders in the perpetual swap markets.

The Open Interest also picked up slightly. Increased speculative interest and buyer aggression could help drive a short squeeze in the coming days. However, if the Open Interest begins to slow down again, it would indicate the bounce was driven by short positions unwinding rather than sustained demand.

The dilemma for long-term Ethereum investors

The Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands use the all-time MVRV mean and degrees of deviation from it to form bands. These bands act as dynamic support/resistance levels.

Right now, the extreme low of the band, the -1.0σ, or one standard deviation below the mean, at $1,549, was acting as support.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out in a post on X that July has kicked off with a buy signal on the monthly timeframe from the TD Sequential indicator.

In September 2022 and March 2025, when the same monthly buy signal flashed, Ethereum rallied 235% and 182%, respectively.

The ETF flows and wider market sentiment did not make it seem like a major market bottom was forming. Only time will confirm whether a deeper drawdown is lying in wait.

Final Summary

• The increased Ethereum taker buy ratio in perpetual markets and Open Interest signaled increased short-term speculative interest.
• $ETH’s spot ETF flows were negative over the past two weeks, underlining weak investor conviction.