Global Liquidity Momentum, Not M2 Supply, Will Trigger the Next Real Crypto Bull Run

Cryptographers CryptoRover posted a graph of X showing how Bitcoin and altcoins respond to year-over-year (YoY) liquidity momentum more than they respond to the total global money supply in M2. The chart on Bitcoin and M2 Growth Global YoY shows that the market has not had a true bull cycle since liquidity growth is still slow.

Crypto, and especially altcoins, responds more to year-over-year liquidity momentum than to just an increase in global M2.

We haven’t seen a true bull market yet, based on year-over-year liquidity. 👇 pic.twitter.com/IZGdcltg3x

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 9, 2025

The chart includes three key elements, including Bitcoin price (black line), M2 YoY growth (green area), and global M2 supply (blue line). Bitcoin has been increasing significantly in strong periods of M2 expansion, which occurred in 2017 and 20202021, but it has since been stagnant around $70,000 in 2025 with slower liquidity growth. The YoY M2 growth rate that spiked to close to 18% in 2021 has since slowed to 2-6 which indicates less liquidity momentum.

Bitcoin vs. Global Money Supply Trends Chart Insights

Global M2 supply is steadily increasing but at a subdued rate, which means that the conditions are tightening after the pandemic stimulus. These indicators help Rover to justify that crypto is a phenomenon whose success depends on how fast money is printed, rather than the overall amount. The results of the analysis of Rover conform to the macroeconomic theory: the change of the money stock rate (liquidity momentum) affects the speculative assets much more than the total M2 stock.
Historically:

This rally was stimulus-driven 18% up, 2021. The market in 2025 however has very weak momentum and the prices are not rising despite the high cash reserves. The difference is the reason behind the seemingly range-bound Bitcoin and underperforming altcoins. In the absence of the prompt infusion of liquidity, no real bull market can take off.

Implication on the global policy and market

After 2022, monetary policy tightening by central banks all over the world has reduced the increase in liquidity, curbing inflation. Analysts observe that historical data indicate crypto bull market lag by 6-12 months behind M2 growth spikes, and a recovery is only possible should central banks further loosen their policies, potentially in 2026.

The price of Bitcoin has been in constant correlation with the global liquidity growth cycles. Once M2 YoY goes positive and increases, crypto is likely to rise in a year. 20182019: Bear phase was caused by negative liquidity. 20202021: Record bull run was a result of giant stimulus. 20232025 flat liquidity = flat markets and damp sentiment. In case of M2 growth recovery above 810% YoY in the following quarters, analysts think Bitcoin will take a step above $100K and altcoins will follow. Markets can go for as long as 2011 in consolidation.

Further Implications to Investors

The liquidity-sensitive feature of altcoins is more sensitive, considering that they have smaller caps and are speculative. The previous holders of long-term might perceive the current stagnation as stagnation territory preceding the subsequent macro uptrend. The changing of the central bank provisions (e.g. rate reduction or fresh quantitative easing) can jumpstart the pace in a quicker way than anticipated. The analysis by Rover is a reminder that the macro liquidity trends tend to determine the crypto cycles more than the on-chain data and halving events in isolation.