Polymarket, the fast-growing prediction market known for its event-driven trading, is outperforming most decentralized finance (DeFi) projects in keeping users active—and the data explaining this trend sheds light on a critical challenge facing the broader industry.

A recent analysis by Dune and Keyrock examined user retention across 275 crypto platforms, including wallets, DeFi protocols, and exchanges. The results show that Polymarket maintained stronger month-to-month user activity than 85% of them. In a sector where trading activity often evaporates once volatility fades, this level of consistency stands out.

For prediction markets like Polymarket, retention grows organically through a structure tied to real-world events—political elections, sports outcomes, or economic indicators—that constantly reset the trading narrative.

Real-World Triggers Keep Users Coming Back

Unlike standard crypto platforms, prediction markets thrive on the news cycle itself. Each headline, from an election poll shift to an inflation report, creates new opportunities for participation.

Source: Dune and Keyrock

Exchanges like Coinbase and Gemini, wallet provider Phantom, and clearing firm Bitnomial have each announced moves into the prediction market space over the last quarter. Coinbase plans to integrate tokenized equities and event markets, while Gemini recently launched a nationwide prediction market product aimed at becoming an all-in-one app for digital finance.

Meanwhile, Bitnomial secured regulatory clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate and clear prediction markets—an approval that could signal broader institutional recognition for the sector.

The numbers reveal the scale of this momentum. Since early 2024, monthly notional volume across prediction markets has leapt from under $100 million to more than $13 billion—a 130-fold increase. Active users grew from just 4,000 to over 600,000, with transactions surging to 43 million.

Source: Dune and Keyrock

Polymarket’s mix of trading categories also shows a clear evolution. In 2025, the platform’s volume was split across sports (39%), politics (34%), and crypto (18%), contrasting sharply with Kalshi’s sports-heavy profile, where 85% of volume remains tied to athletic events.

Accuracy Adds to the Appeal

Prediction markets are not only expanding—they are also proving impressively accurate. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi achieve Brier scores near 0.09, outperforming expert polls and even sophisticated economic models.

Polymarket’s event outcomes align correctly about 90–95% of the time, and accuracy continues improving with deeper liquidity. Such precision has turned them into informal barometers of macroeconomic and political sentiment.

Key data suggests these markets anticipate shifts faster than traditional forecasts—Kalshi’s inflation contracts, for instance, react 4.3 times less erratically than the Cleveland FedNow model.