Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Over? Critical On-Chain Signal Shows Inflows Drying Up

Bitcoin’s recent push above $110,000 faces headwinds as crucial on-chain metrics reveal that capital inflows are beginning to slow, casting doubt on the rally’s immediate sustainability.

Currently trading near $111,200, Bitcoin sits precariously within a key price zone that analysts identify as pivotal for determining the next major move. A flattening in investor momentum, highlighted by CryptoQuant data, suggests the underlying bid may be weakening, potentially setting the stage for a test of lower supports.

On-Chain Signal: CryptoQuant PnL Index Shows Bitcoin Inflows Flattening

Think of market momentum like water pressure: strong inflows push prices higher, but weakening pressure makes the current level harder to sustain. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju points to exactly this scenario unfolding now. He highlights the Bitcoin PnL Index – a metric tracking aggregate investor profitability and momentum, which has started to plateau in October after recovering earlier in the year.

This flattening, visualized on a 365-day moving average, isn’t necessarily a crash signal, but it’s a critical warning. It suggests that the wave of new capital chasing Bitcoin higher has diminished.

Source: Ki Young Ju on X

After strong growth through late 2024 and early 2025, followed by a sharp decline into May and a mid-year recovery, this renewed stagnation implies investor appetite might be hitting a near-term ceiling. Without fresh inflows pushing demand, the market becomes more vulnerable to sell-offs.

Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: BlackRock Adds $73M To Holdings

Swissblock Defines $109K-$114K as BTC’s “Cost Basis Battleground”

Analytics firm Swissblock described Bitcoin’s current price zone between $109,000 and $114,000 as a “cost basis battleground” for most holders. Sustaining this level could mark the start of a reaccumulation phase, while a breakdown below it could trigger a broader pullback.

Glassnode data also shows concentrated selling in the same range, indicating that traders are hedging into strength rather than adding exposure.

Source: Glassnode

Standard Chartered Reiterates Sub-$100K Dip Call Before Next Rally

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick warned that Bitcoin could briefly dip below $100,000 before recovering, citing the recent pullback from October’s $126,000 high as a healthy correction within a longer-term uptrend.

As per TheBlock, Kendrick stated that such a dip may present a “buy-the-dip” opportunity, potentially marking the last time Bitcoin trades below six figures.

BTC Price Analysis: Holding $104K Support Becomes Critical

Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase near $111,000 reflects this uncertainty. The price remains trapped within a falling channel established since the rejection from $126,000 in mid-September.

Immediate resistance lies near $113,500. A decisive breakout above this level, and subsequently the upper channel boundary near $125,000 (which also aligns with upper Bollinger Band resistance), is needed to invalidate the bearish warnings and target all-time highs near $130,000.

On the downside, the crucial support zone sits near $104,000. This level represents the lower trendline of the falling channel and roughly aligns with the 100-day moving average. A break below $104,000 would significantly increase the odds of fulfilling Kendrick’s sub-$100k prediction, potentially targeting the $96,000 area as a retest of prior accumulation zones.

Current momentum indicators offer little immediate direction. The RSI hovers near 47 (neutral), while the MACD remains slightly negative but is flattening, hinting at stabilization. The Balance of Power (BoP) confirms limited buying pressure for now, reflecting the wait-and-see approach dictated by the slowing capital inflows.

Related: Why Did BTC, ETH, XRP & ADA Drop October & Can They Recover Before Halloween?