Bitcoin ends October in red, but now enters its biggest month for gains

Bitcoin has stepped into its historically most significant month for gains — November — with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013 — meaning Bitcoin could surpass $160,000 this month if history rhymes.

However, a crypto analyst noted that several macroeconomic factors are also at play.

“I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research.

Looking ahead, there is an expectation that the US Fed will further lower interest rates, and the US and China are working on a trade deal; both developments could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the government shutdown and US tariffs continue to add to economic uncertainty.

Here’s a breakdown of some key developments to keep your eye on in the weeks ahead.

US / China easing trade tensions

A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was seen as a positive step toward ending trade tensions between the US and China.

Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “amazing.” Part of the talks included an agreement from Trump to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on fentanyl trade, resuming US soybean buying and an end to restrictions on rare earth exports for a year.

Bitcoin monthly returns since 2013. Source: CoinGlass

Trump told reporters he expects a trade deal with China “pretty soon.”

Trump’s threat of tariffs against China was blamed for the recent crypto crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated over just 24 hours on Oct. 11. The crypto market has struggled to recover since then.

However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow in its China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was more of a “pause” in the trade war, but it was far from over.

US Fed to cut rates, end quantitative tightening

It was only days ago that Fed officials voted for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.

The next Fed meeting date is set for Dec. 10, 2025. Data from CME’s FedWatch — a tool used to measure expectations for a Federal Reserve rate change — shows traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate cut.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the move was “not a foregone conclusion.”

Fed cuts are seen as bullish for Bitcoin, as the lower cost of borrowing money has historically incentivized investors to trade riskier assets, such as cryptocurrencies.

Adding to this is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program on Dec. 1. QT is the process of contracting the central bank’s balance sheet. The goal of QT is to cool down an overheating economy and prevent inflation from rising too quickly.

Source: Arthur Hayes

The opposite of this, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting more cash into the economy, and is seen as good for crypto, as some of that money flows into alternative assets.

US government shutdown stretches on

The US government shutdown is soon to enter its fifth week, approaching the longest in US history, as US Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over the government spending plan.

Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle isn’t dead, expect a 70% drop next downturn: VC

On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to abolish the “Senate filibuster” rule, which allows a small group of senators to block action by the majority, which he blames for the government shutdown.

“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

An end to the shutdown has been seen as a necessary step for the SEC to give the final green light to several crypto ETFs, along with critical advancements of the crypto markets structure bill, also known as the CLARITY Act.

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