Bitcoin Flirts With Historic Oversold Levels, Cycle Reset Looms

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is sliding toward levels last seen in the harshest bear market phases. Meanwhile, another analyst says the pre halving record high shifted the entire cycle clock.

Bitcoin Nears Rare Weekly RSI Lows as Price Holds Above 200 Week Average

Bitcoin traded near the $68,000–$69,000 area on weekly charts as a key momentum gauge slid toward levels seen only during past bear market stress. Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) said Bitcoin is nearing all time oversold territory, with the weekly relative strength index, or RSI, dropping to about 15.6 on his chart.

Bitcoin Weekly RSI and Moving Averages Chart. Source: Alex Thorn on X (@intangiblecoins)

The chart shows the weekly RSI sitting lower than almost any reading since 2016. Thorn pointed to only two lower periods: November and December 2018, when Bitcoin fell from about $6,000 to roughly $3,000, and June and July 2022, when Three Arrows Capital collapsed and Genesis later turned out to be insolvent, he said.

At the same time, the price panel in the chart places Bitcoin above its 200 week moving average, marked near $58,500, while trading below shorter weekly moving averages. As a result, the chart frames a market with extreme weak momentum on the RSI, while longer term support remains nearby on the 200 week line.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Cycle Timing Shifted After Pre Halving High

Meanwhile, Rekt Fencer (@rektfencer) argued that Bitcoin’s market cycle no longer matches the usual halving based pattern after the asset printed a record high before the halving. He said that move “breaks the whole model” and shifts the timing window traders typically use to map tops and bottoms.

Bitcoin U.S. Dollar Two Week Chart (BTCUSD, Bitstamp). Source: Rekt Fencer on X (@rektfencer)

The chart tracks Bitcoin versus the U.S. dollar on a two week timeframe using Bitstamp data. It marks prior cycle durations with green labels, including 1,183 days, 1,085 days, and 847 days across earlier runs. Those brackets highlight how long each upswing lasted before momentum faded and price rolled over.

Rekt Fencer said the next phase should compress into a 700 to 800 day window instead of repeating the longer timelines shown on the left side of the chart. He linked that shift to the earlier record high, which moved the cycle’s peak and pullback sequence forward on the calendar.

Based on that timing change, he placed the potential cycle low in July or August. He also compared buying during the current stretch to buying around the deeper pullback zone in the prior cycle, framing it as an equivalent stage rather than a direct price match.