Bitcoin slump may rebound up to 21% in 7 days if history repeats: Economist

Bitcoin’s price may recover up to 21% over the coming seven days if October’s historical trends hold, according to an economist.

“Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare. This has happened only 4 times in the past 10 years,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Friday.’

He said those instances occurred in October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. In the week following each drop, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded by 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019. The only exception was 2021, when the crypto asset fell a further 3%.

October is often dubbed “Uptober” for its historically strong returns.

October has delivered an average return of 20.14% since 2013. Source: CoinGlass

Since 2013, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average, delivering an average return of 20.10%, trailing only November, which has had an average gain of 46.02%, according to data from CoinGlass.

If history repeats, Bitcoin may skyrocket to $124,000

Peterson’s comments came after Bitcoin plunged to $102,000 on Friday following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin has already slightly recovered to $112,468, after only reaching a new all-time high of $125,100 on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is trading at $111,700 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

If history repeats and Bitcoin mirrors its strongest October rebound — the 21% surge in 2019 — a similar move from Friday’s low of $102,000 would place the cryptocurrency just below its latest all-time high, around $124,000, within a week.

Bitcoiners emphasize that it is still early in October

Several other Bitcoin advocates remain confident that the uptrend will continue.

In an X post on Friday, Jan3 founder Samson Mow said, “There are still 21 days left in Uptober.” MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said, “This is the bottom of the current cycle.”

“The biggest liquidation crash in history. COVID-19 was the bottom of the previous cycle,” he said.

Some analysts took a longer-term view. The Bitcoin Libertarian said, “In a few years, Bitcoin will crash from $1M to $0.8M in a few hours, and we’ll all be talking about a new record high amount of liquidations.”

“Let history repeat,” he said.