Market expert flags ‘a 100-year risk signal’ for stocks and Bitcoin

Mike McGlone, a commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has flagged ‘a 100-year pump-then-dump risk signal’ for US stocks and Bitcoin (BTC).

In a June 10 analysis shared on X, McGlone argued that the stock market could end 2026 lower than expected despite years of strong gains, pointing to extreme valuations in US equities and growing divergences across major asset classes.

According to his analysis, the ratio of total US stock market capitalization to GDP recently reached about 2.5 times, a near 100-year extreme. Similarly, he noted that the S&P 500 Total Return Index has recorded only two negative years since Bitcoin launched, underscoring the persistence of the bull market.

“The seemingly inconceivable notion that the US stock market could end 2026 in the red may represent the ultimate pump-then-dump risk for all markets. My graphic highlights that the S&P 500 Total Return Index has posted only two down years since Bitcoin launched in 2009 and shows same-chart syndrome between the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and US stock-market cap-to-GDP.” McGlone wrote.

‘Bitcoin could succumb to competition’

The extreme ratio of total US stock market capitalization to GDP, McGlone continued, is accompanied by the crocodile-jaws pattern of the collapsing Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and surging equities, which, in his view, now appears unsustainable.

“At 2.5x on June 10, modest reversion from this roughly 100-year extreme could be profound. The crocodile-jaws pattern of the collapsing Bitcoin-to-gold ratio alongside surging equities appears unsustainable,” he added.

However, he argued that such prolonged strength may have created conditions for a meaningful reversion toward historical norms. The strategist suggested that one potential outcome is a recovery in cryptocurrencies that would bring them back in line with the record-setting stock market. Another possibility, however, is that Bitcoin will face continued pressure from growing competition in the sector and eventually succumb to it.

“A best-case scenario may be a recovery in the crypto, following the record-setting stock market. Alternatively, Bitcoin may succumb to unchecked crypto competition. It’s the risk of modest normalization in stocks that mean-reverting Bitcoin may be signaling,” the commodity guru concluded.

Ultimately, while McGlone did not predict an outright crash, he cautioned that one of the longest and strongest bull markets in the past century could face a meaningful setback if valuations begin to retreat. Consequently, a normalization in US stock valuations could have significant consequences for both traditional and digital asset markets.

Featured image via Shutterstock