What’s the Latest on Bitcoin (BTC)? What Are the Big Whales Doing? Analysis Firm Takes a Deep Dive

In its latest assessment, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated that the cryptocurrency market is moving within a narrower range as the year draws to a close, but is exhibiting a more resilient structure compared to previous periods.

According to the company, market leadership is increasingly concentrated around Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), while altcoins continue to underperform.

According to Wintermute’s macro market analysis, downward pressure on cryptocurrency markets increased at the beginning of last week. Bitcoin fell below $85,000 in the middle of the week, while Ethereum also dropped below the $3,000 level. These movements accelerated liquidations again; approximately $600 million worth of positions were liquidated on Monday, and around $400 million each day on Wednesday and Thursday. The market exhibited a highly volatile appearance, with attempts at upward movement quickly met with selling pressure. Later in the week, however, volatility decreased, and Bitcoin gradually recovered towards the $90,000 level.

Wintermute noted that as the year-end and holiday season approach, the market structure is further tightening, and Bitcoin dominance is on the rise again, reinforcing the trend that characterized the second half of the year. Altcoins, however, remain weaker compared to major assets due to a busy token lock-up schedule and supply pressure.

According to the company’s own transaction flow data, buying pressure is resurfacing in major cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin has maintained this buying interest for a long time, a similar trend is seen strengthening in Ethereum towards the end of the year. It is noted that institutional investors have consistently taken long positions since the summer months, while individual investors are exiting altcoins and returning to major assets like BTC and ETH. This rotation is considered consistent with the prevailing market view that “Bitcoin should lead first.”

Wintermute also added that while spot market purchases of major assets are providing a more stable base for prices, the main price discovery is still taking place through derivatives markets. This situation is leading to sharp intraday fluctuations as net purchases continue in BTC and ETH, while over-leveraged positions are being liquidated. Relatively tight funding rates and futures contracts indicate continued uncertainty in the options market. Some market participants are pricing in a pullback to the mid-$80,000 level, while others are pricing in a return to recent highs.

Looking at the medium and long term, Wintermute noted that news from the institutional and traditional finance sectors paints a positive picture for the crypto ecosystem. It was stated that traditional finance representatives are entering the crypto space with more sustained and cautious steps despite market volatility, and that this type of capital is generally long-term and “sticky.” The view was shared that this integration process could be supportive of prices in the medium term, but that upward momentum might remain limited in the short term.

Wintermute concluded its assessment with the expectation that the market will continue to experience volatile but sideways movement towards the end of the year, due to weak liquidity and reduced trading desk activity. According to the company, the past week once again demonstrated that the crypto market is in a consolidation phase. While downward movements are still sharp, these movements are limited by rapid liquidations, and capital is once again flowing into the most liquid assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the main risk bearers, while the broader altcoin market continues to struggle under supply pressure and low risk appetite.

*This is not investment advice.