Prediction markets price in Man City’s Champions League odds despite scandal

Despite the September 25 ruling finding the Manchester City football – or soccer – club guilty of 114 out of the 115 initial charges for violating UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) and the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability (PSR) rules, cryptocurrency traders appear completely unfazed by the development.

Specifically, Polymarket’s ‘UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion’ prediction market with more than $50 million in volume had the club at 9% odds of victory since late August, with only minor and temporary shifts recorded early in September.

Indeed, the ruling had no impact on the forecasts, though, notably, early October brought a shift when Manchester City’s odds briefly dropped to 6% before recovering to 7% on October 7 – a reading that remains relevant at press time on Tuesday, October 13.

Crypto traders set odds of Manchester City beating PSG

Meanwhile, the relatively minor effect the decision had on the prediction market cryptocurrency traders is also evident in the forecasts for the Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) game, scheduled for Wednesday, October 14 – the club’s first Champions League game since the ruling.

Indeed, the odds on the market in favor of the British club winning debuted at 45% and, after roughly ten days, closer to 40%, returned to their original value by press time on October 13.

Simultaneously, the forecast for PSG slightly improved from 32% to 33% by Tuesday, though it notably spent early October at a substantially higher 36%. Lastly, the prediction market with a volume of $37,200 has stayed in a limited range for a ‘draw’ forecast – between 23% and 24%.

Prediction market price in the most likely Champions League winner

Elsewhere, though the September 25 ruling had next to no impact on the forecasts, Manchester City is not a favorite for victory in the Champions League and has seen something of a fall from grace since July.

Indeed, the club recorded its highest odds of an overall victory during the summer – 13% – and has been on a downtrend since.

Barcelona is instead viewed as a favorite at 23%.

Curiously, despite being expected to lose to Manchester City, PSG is tied as the second most likely winner with Bayern and Arsenal at 14%.

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