Bitcoin is on track for its best month in a year. $5 billion USDT growth fuels the rebound

Bitcoin held above $77,000 on Friday, consolidating after hitting its strongest level since early February earlier in the week.

The largest cryptocurrency is up about 13.6% in April, putting it on track for its best monthly performance in a year, according to CoinGlass data. The rebound follows a rough stretch, with crypto markets logging their longest losing streak since 2018, posting consecutive monthly declines from October through February.

The turnaround comes as the broader macro backdrop has improved. U.S. equities have staged a strong recovery, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing back to record highs after briefly slipping into correction territory earlier this year.

But there’s a crypto-specific driver behind the move, too.

The supply of Tether’s USDT , the largest and most popular stablecoin, has surged to just under $150 billion, adding about $5 billion over the past two weeks after months of stagnation.

That matters because stablecoins — cryptocurrencies tied to fiat money like the U.S. dollar — act as liquidity in crypto markets, the capital traders use to buy digital assets in the blockchain economy. Analysts often interpret stablecoin growth as a cue for capital flowing to the crypto market, a healthy signal for asset prices.

Markets ‘stopped caring’ about Iran war

Still, the macro picture hasn’t cleared yet. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the Iran war persist, keeping oil prices at elevated levels.

But for now, markets seem to be looking past it, said Jasper de Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute.

“The equities and crypto markets seem to have stopped caring about intricate headlines on the conflict’s direction,” de Maere. “This shows a certain level of fatigue and potentially complacency.”

He noted that strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets are helping offset concerns about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.

FOMC test coming

In that environment, bitcoin is hovering near the top of its trading range while the $79,000 level proved the be mighty cap with traders taking profits.

That level “matters structurally because heavy institutional overhead supply sits just above it,” said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group.

Whether BTC can break through will depend on what drives the move and who’s doing the buying. Moves driven mainly by short covering tend to fade once momentum cools, while a breakout backed by sustained institutional demand can mark a more durable shift, he said.

The next test comes soon with the April Fed meeting that could determine whether the current rally holds, Haeems said.

If ETF inflows continue through that event, he said, $79,000 could turn from resistance into support, opening the door for a higher trading range. If flows fade, bitcoin may slip back into the $75,000–$77,000 range.