XLM dips below the October 10 low of $0.16: how low can it go?

Stellar Lumen’s $XLM coin has recorded massive losses over the last seven days, mirroring the performance of the broader cryptocurrency market.

At press time, it is trading at $0.159, down by more than 8% in the last 24 hours.

The bearish performance comes after $XLM was rejected at a key level, with further downward movement currently on the cards.

The derivatives data show signs of weakness, with $XLM’s short bets rising amid falling Open Interest (OI).

Technical indicators also suggest that the bears remain in control and could push $XLM’s price lower in the near term.

Derivatives data show a strong bearish bias

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The bearish performance comes as derivatives data show weakening retail demand.

According to CoinGlass’s data, $XLM long-to-short ratio stands at 0.85 on Thursday, nearing the lowest value in a month.

With the ratio below one, it suggests that the market sentiment is currently bearish and more traders are betting on the asset price to fall.

Furthermore, Stellar’s futures Open Interest (OI) dropped to $97 million on Thursday, the lowest level since November 2024, and has been steadily falling since the start of this year.

The declining OI indicates decreasing investor participation and projects a bearish outlook.

$XLM’s bearish performance mirrors BTC, ETH, $XRP, SOL, and other leading cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has dropped to the $70k region after losing 7% of its value since Wednesday.

Ether risks dropping below the $2k psychological level, while $XRP failed to defend the $1.44 support level, with the bulls now pushing it towards the $1.30 support.

Stellar technical forecast: will $XLM drop below the $0.15 psychological level?

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The $XLM/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bearish after losing 22% of its value in the last seven days.

The bearish performance comes after $XLM’s price was rejected around the broken trendline of $0.1835 on Monday, resulting in over 13% loss in the last four days.

At press time, $XLM is trading at $0.159 per coin.

$XLM has dropped below the 2025 yearly low of $0.160, set on October 10, and could decline towards the $0.15 psychological level if the selloff persists.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 36 on the 4-hour chart, an oversold condition, indicating strong bearish momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover three weeks ago, which remains intact, further supporting the negative outlook.

However, if the bulls regain control in the near term, $XLM could recover towards the $0.183 resistance level.

An extended bullish scenario would see the bulls push $XLM towards the January 28 high of $0.213.