Solana price stuck in range – Can SOL reverse its long-term downtrend?

Since the 4th of May, Solana [$SOL] has rallied 7.2%. Its price has been above $80 for a while now, and AMBCrypto reported that some bulls were confident in the altcoin’s upward momentum.

Even after four consecutive green days, $SOL continued to labor under a bearish trend. The range formation since February, combined with the downtrend that preceded it, meant $SOL’s chances of a breakout past the psychological $100 level were slim.

The new addresses’ growth has been trending downward since March but recently saw a small uptick in new addresses. However, this increase was minimal compared to the new participant interest that accompanied Solana during past bull runs.

Comparing with a bull run might be unfair, given the wide consensus that Bitcoin [BTC] and Solana were in a bear market. The new address growth trends tend to remain muted during times of downturn, as they have been since March.

In other words, the data does not support the idea of widespread retail demand and an impending breakout from the range.

What the MVRV extreme deviation bands can tell us about Solana trends

In May 2022, $SOL prices fell below the -1.0σ level of the MVRV ratio, indicating a bear market. This represented extreme market pessimism, as these standard deviation levels corresponded to bull and bear market extremes.

The FTX implosion later in the year drove prices well below the 1 standard deviation extreme. Even in the months before disaster, the lower band had served as resistance to the price.

This cycle, the same band had acted as support in early February. The range formation developed afterward, and as things stand, a deep price dive below $64, the lower MVRV extreme deviation band, was a possibility investors would have to prepare for.

The downtrend might not be as steep as the previous cycle, and the $120 resistance, as the -0.5σ level, was also one to keep an eye on.

Final Summary

• The Solana new address growth has slowed down since February as $SOL prices settled into a range.
• The MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands helped highlight the importance the $120 and $64 levels could have later in 2026.