Bitcoin shows exhaustion as analysts say $125K target unlikely in 2025

Bitcoin’s price appears to be losing steam, which may mean that the more optimistic forecasts for the end of 2025 may not materialize this year.

However, analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin (BTC) will see renewed momentum in 2026.

“We don’t expect crypto to go any higher than $125K USD in 2025,” ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan said in comments viewed by Cointelegraph. That target is just below Bitcoin’s Oct. 4 all-time high of just over $126,000.

Morgan said that Bitcoin would need to untether itself from its current correlation with announcements made by US President Donald Trump before another bull run could occur.

It comes as Bitcoin selling intensified on Tuesday as BTC abruptly fell to 4-month lows of $100,800. Bitfinex analysts said on Tuesday that “persistent distribution from Bitcoin long-term holders continues to exert structural pressure on the market.”

Bitcoin analysts point to “broader signs of exhaustion”

Bitfinex analysts said that “this sustained outflow aligns with the broader signs of exhaustion visible across the market, as long-term holders continue to offload into declining demand.”

They warned that if Bitcoin doesn’t quickly rebound to recent levels above $116,000, it could face further downside as the year comes to a close.

Bitcoin has declined by 10.01% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls, as prolonged stagnation historically erodes sentiment and increases the risk of forced distribution.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, dropped by half to a score of 21 out of 100 on Tuesday, showing the market was in “Extreme Fear.”

Bitcoin’s current price weakness contrasts significantly with recent calls for explosive upside. Just weeks ago, prominent Bitcoin advocates suggested the asset could still reach $250,000 before year-end.

Bitcoiners tip $250,000 by the end of year

Speaking on the Bankless podcast in early October, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said they remain confident Bitcoin can hit between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, a prediction they’ve stuck with for most of this year.

However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said planets would almost need to align for Bitcoin to reach that price by the end of the year.

Analysts are divided on how Bitcoin will play out in 2026. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan tipped in July that 2026 would be an “up year” for Bitcoin.

However, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth said in an X post on Tuesday that “2026 will likely be a bear market, similar to prior midterm years.”

It was only recently that veteran trader Peter Brandt tipped that Bitcoin could head to bear levels as low as $60,000.